AI correctly predicted the Briton Ferry win.
The match finished 2–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Briton Ferry Briton Ferry ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Briton Ferry | 38.0% | 59.1% | -21.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.2% | +6.3 pp | Model Higher |
| Ammanford AFC | 32.4% | 17.7% | +14.7 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Briton Ferry's win probability at 59.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 21.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Briton Ferry win 2–1).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Briton Ferry higher (59.1% vs model 38.0%, 21.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Briton Ferry win 2–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Briton Ferry 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Ammanford AFC 32.4%
- xG · Briton Ferry 1.36 — Ammanford AFC 1.24
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Briton Ferry 1.57 · Draw 3.99 · Ammanford AFC 5.25
- Implied 1X2 · Briton Ferry 59.1% · Draw 23.2% · Ammanford AFC 17.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Briton Ferry 1.57 · Draw 3.99 · Ammanford AFC 5.25
- Implied 1X2 · Briton Ferry 59.1% · Draw 23.2% · Ammanford AFC 17.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Jul 31, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Briton Ferry win · 2–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (21 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Premier League — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The New Saints | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 28 |
| 2 | Penybont | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 24 |
| 3 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 5 | Barry Town | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 22 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 |
| 7 | Llandudno | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 |
| 8 | Airbus UK | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 |
| 9 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 10 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 11 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 8 |
| 13 | Trefelin | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 14 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 3 |
| 15 | Flint Town United | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Holywell | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 1 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caernarfon Town | 10 | 33 | 11 | +22 | 22 |
| 2 | The New Saints | 10 | 26 | 4 | +22 | 28 |
| 3 | Barry Town | 10 | 25 | 16 | +9 | 22 |
| 4 | GAP Connah S Quay FC | 10 | 23 | 7 | +16 | 22 |
| 5 | Penybont | 10 | 20 | 8 | +12 | 24 |
| 6 | Colwyn Bay | 10 | 20 | 14 | +6 | 19 |
| 7 | Cardiff MET | 9 | 19 | 11 | +8 | 14 |
| 8 | Llandudno | 10 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 16 |
| 9 | Airbus UK | 10 | 17 | 15 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 | Cambrian & Clydach | 10 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 15 |
| 11 | Holywell | 10 | 11 | 35 | -24 | 1 |
| 12 | Briton Ferry | 10 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 8 |
| 13 | Flint Town United | 10 | 8 | 24 | -16 | 2 |
| 14 | Haverfordwest County AFC | 9 | 7 | 14 | -7 | 10 |
| 15 | Ammanford AFC | 10 | 7 | 28 | -21 | 3 |
| 16 | Trefelin | 10 | 4 | 24 | -20 | 3 |
