Predictions / Football / Denmark. 2. Division / Fremad Amager vs Naestved

Prediction Audit: Fremad Amager vs Naestved Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fremad Amager Fremad Amager
Sep 18, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.30
1 1.30
xG Accuracy: 85%
Naestved Naestved

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Fremad Amager at 35.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Fremad Amager Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Naestved -4.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Fremad Amager 35.2% 34.5% +0.7 pp Aligned
Draw 29.6% 25.8% +3.8 pp Aligned
Naestved 35.2% 39.7% -4.5 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • 1X2: model leaned Fremad Amager; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Fremad Amager 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Naestved 35.2%
    • xG · Fremad Amager 1.30 — Naestved 1.30
  2. Sep 18, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Fremad Amager 2.65 · Draw 3.55 · Naestved 2.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Fremad Amager 34.6% · Draw 25.8% · Naestved 39.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Fremad Amager 2.66 · Draw 3.55 · Naestved 2.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Fremad Amager 34.5% · Draw 25.8% · Naestved 39.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 18, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 26/100
Monitoring Confidence 34/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 12, 2026 · 01:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8209559

Closing Odds 2.31
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Fremad Amager 1–1 Naestved
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: 2. Division
  • Fixture: Fremad Amager vs Naestved
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-18 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.2% · Draw 29.6% · Away 35.2%
  • xG (showing): Fremad Amager 1.3 — Naestved 1.3 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 43.8% · Probability edge: +8.1 pts · Est. EV: +15.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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2. Division 2. Division — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Nykobing FC 9 6 3 0 21
2 VSK Århus 9 5 3 1 18
3 Roskilde 9 3 6 0 15
4 Fremad Amager 9 3 5 1 14
5 Middelfart 8 3 4 1 13
6 Naestved 8 3 4 1 13
7 B 93 9 3 3 3 12
8 Skive 9 3 2 4 11
9 HIK 9 2 2 5 8
10 Brabrand 9 1 3 5 6
11 FA 2000 9 1 2 6 5
12 Thisted FC 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Nykobing FC 9 24 10 +14 21
2 Roskilde 9 16 10 +6 15
3 Middelfart 8 15 8 +7 13
4 VSK Århus 9 14 5 +9 18
5 Fremad Amager 9 13 12 +1 14
6 B 93 9 13 13 0 12
7 Naestved 8 11 9 +2 13
8 Skive 9 11 12 -1 11
9 Brabrand 9 10 18 -8 6
10 FA 2000 9 10 21 -11 5
11 HIK 9 8 16 -8 8
12 Thisted FC 9 8 19 -11 4
2. Division Denmark. 2. Division Predictions