AI correctly predicted the Naestved win.
The match finished 0–1, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Naestved Naestved ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brabrand | 31.5% | 22.9% | +8.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.5% | 25.1% | +4.5 pp | Aligned |
| Naestved | 39.0% | 52.0% | -13.1 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Naestved's win probability at 52.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 39.0%, a difference of 13.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Naestved win 0–1).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Naestved than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Naestved higher (52.0% vs model 39.0%, 13.1 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Naestved win 0–1).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:58 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Brabrand 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Naestved 39.0%
- xG · Brabrand 1.22 — Naestved 1.38
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Brabrand 4.00 · Draw 3.65 · Naestved 1.76
- Implied 1X2 · Brabrand 22.9% · Draw 25.1% · Naestved 52.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:58 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Brabrand 4.00 · Draw 3.65 · Naestved 1.76
- Implied 1X2 · Brabrand 22.9% · Draw 25.1% · Naestved 52.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Naestved win · 0–1
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (13 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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2. Division — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | VSK Århus | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 3 | Roskilde | 9 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Fremad Amager | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 5 | Middelfart | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 6 | Naestved | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 13 |
| 7 | B 93 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Skive | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 9 | HIK | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 10 | Brabrand | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 11 | FA 2000 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 5 |
| 12 | Thisted FC | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nykobing FC | 9 | 24 | 10 | +14 | 21 |
| 2 | Roskilde | 9 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 15 |
| 3 | Middelfart | 8 | 15 | 8 | +7 | 13 |
| 4 | VSK Århus | 9 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 18 |
| 5 | Fremad Amager | 9 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 14 |
| 6 | B 93 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 12 |
| 7 | Naestved | 8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 | Skive | 9 | 11 | 12 | -1 | 11 |
| 9 | Brabrand | 9 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 |
| 10 | FA 2000 | 9 | 10 | 21 | -11 | 5 |
| 11 | HIK | 9 | 8 | 16 | -8 | 8 |
| 12 | Thisted FC | 9 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 4 |
