Predictions / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga / Moreirense vs Maritimo

Prediction Audit: Moreirense vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Moreirense Moreirense
Sep 14, 2026 - 19:15
3 0.99
1 1.22
xG Accuracy: 54%
Maritimo Maritimo

The model missed the final outcome (Moreirense win 3–1).

The model had projected Maritimo at 38.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Maritimo Moreirense ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 0-1, 1-1, 0-0, 1-0, 0-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Moreirense -4.5 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Moreirense 29.2% 33.7% -4.5 pp Aligned
Draw 31.9% 30.5% +1.3 pp Aligned
Maritimo 38.9% 35.7% +3.2 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Moreirense win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Moreirense win 3–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 14, 2026 · 19:20 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Moreirense 29.2% · Draw 31.9% · Maritimo 38.9%
    • xG · Moreirense 0.99 — Maritimo 1.22
  2. Sep 14, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Moreirense 2.87 · Draw 3.17 · Maritimo 2.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Moreirense 33.7% · Draw 30.5% · Maritimo 35.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 14, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Moreirense 2.87 · Draw 3.17 · Maritimo 2.71
    • Implied 1X2 · Moreirense 33.7% · Draw 30.5% · Maritimo 35.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 14, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Moreirense win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 77/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 77/100
Betting Confidence 80/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 08, 2026 · 02:44 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7573759

Closing Odds 2.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Moreirense win · Moreirense 3–1 Maritimo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: Moreirense vs Maritimo
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-14 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 29.2% · Draw 31.9% · Away 38.9%
  • xG (showing): Moreirense 0.99 — Maritimo 1.22 (total xG ≈ 2.21)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 62.0% · Implied: 58.2% · Probability edge: +3.8 pts · Est. EV: +3.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 46.0% · No 54.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 0-1 (13.4%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 11
6 SC Braga 6 3 2 1 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 11
8 Estrela 7 2 4 1 10
9 GIL Vicente 6 2 2 2 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 7
14 Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 22 7 +15 16
2 FC Porto 7 18 3 +15 21
3 Sporting CP 7 17 8 +9 15
4 Estrela 7 14 14 0 10
5 Santa Clara 7 11 4 +7 15
6 Arouca 7 10 7 +3 11
7 Famalicao 7 9 7 +2 7
8 Academico Viseu 7 9 9 0 11
9 Alverca 7 9 11 -2 8
10 Maritimo 7 8 12 -4 8
11 Moreirense 7 8 14 -6 8
12 SC Braga 6 7 5 +2 11
13 Nacional 7 7 15 -8 4
14 GIL Vicente 6 5 5 0 8
15 Guimaraes 7 5 8 -3 5
16 Rio Ave 7 5 15 -10 4
17 Estoril 7 3 10 -7 2
18 Casa Pia 7 3 16 -13 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 8.2 1.7 +6.5 16
2 FC Porto 7 9.0 3.6 +5.4 21
3 Guimaraes 7 6.8 2.9 +3.9 5
4 GIL Vicente 6 5.4 1.6 +3.8 8
5 Santa Clara 7 7.3 3.7 +3.6 15
6 Sporting CP 7 5.9 2.7 +3.2 15
7 SC Braga 6 1.8 0.4 +1.4 11
8 Maritimo 7 4.8 4.7 +0.1 8
9 Estrela 7 4.4 5.2 -0.8 10
10 Famalicao 7 3.3 4.2 -0.9 7
11 Arouca 7 4.8 6.4 -1.6 11
12 Alverca 7 3.9 5.5 -1.6 8
13 Nacional 7 4.6 7.5 -2.9 4
14 Estoril 7 3.3 6.2 -2.9 2
15 Moreirense 7 1.0 3.9 -2.9 8
16 Casa Pia 7 2.3 6.3 -4.0 4
17 Academico Viseu 7 4.8 9.0 -4.2 11
18 Rio Ave 7 2.4 8.3 -5.9 4