Predictions / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga / Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes

Prediction Audit: Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Academico Viseu Academico Viseu
Sep 12, 2026 - 19:30
2 1.04
1 1.54
xG Accuracy: 66%
Guimaraes Guimaraes

The model missed the final outcome (Academico Viseu win 2–1).

The model had projected Guimaraes at 47.2%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Guimaraes Academico Viseu ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 2-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Academico Viseu +0.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Academico Viseu 24.1% 23.8% +0.3 pp Aligned
Draw 28.7% 29.0% -0.3 pp Aligned
Guimaraes 47.2% 47.2% -0.0 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Academico Viseu win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.58) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Guimaraes; match finished Academico Viseu
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The full-time result was Academico Viseu win 2–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 12, 2026 · 20:02 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Academico Viseu 24.2% · Draw 28.7% · Guimaraes 47.2%
    • xG · Academico Viseu 1.04 — Guimaraes 1.54
  2. Sep 12, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Academico Viseu 4.06 · Draw 3.34 · Guimaraes 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Academico Viseu 23.8% · Draw 29.0% · Guimaraes 47.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 12, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Academico Viseu 4.06 · Draw 3.34 · Guimaraes 2.05
    • Implied 1X2 · Academico Viseu 23.8% · Draw 29.0% · Guimaraes 47.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 12, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Academico Viseu win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 79/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 98/100
Betting Confidence 82/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 03:02 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7469325

Closing Odds 4.06
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Academico Viseu win · Academico Viseu 2–1 Guimaraes
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: Academico Viseu vs Guimaraes
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-12 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 24.2% · Draw 28.7% · Away 47.2%
  • xG (showing): Academico Viseu 1.04 — Guimaraes 1.54 (total xG ≈ 2.58)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 47.6% · Implied: 45.0% · Probability edge: +2.6 pts · Est. EV: +4.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 52.4% · No 47.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.1%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 11
6 SC Braga 6 3 2 1 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 11
8 Estrela 7 2 4 1 10
9 GIL Vicente 6 2 2 2 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 7
14 Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 22 7 +15 16
2 FC Porto 7 18 3 +15 21
3 Sporting CP 7 17 8 +9 15
4 Estrela 7 14 14 0 10
5 Santa Clara 7 11 4 +7 15
6 Arouca 7 10 7 +3 11
7 Famalicao 7 9 7 +2 7
8 Academico Viseu 7 9 9 0 11
9 Alverca 7 9 11 -2 8
10 Maritimo 7 8 12 -4 8
11 Moreirense 7 8 14 -6 8
12 SC Braga 6 7 5 +2 11
13 Nacional 7 7 15 -8 4
14 GIL Vicente 6 5 5 0 8
15 Guimaraes 7 5 8 -3 5
16 Rio Ave 7 5 15 -10 4
17 Estoril 7 3 10 -7 2
18 Casa Pia 7 3 16 -13 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 8.2 1.7 +6.5 16
2 FC Porto 7 9.0 3.6 +5.4 21
3 Guimaraes 7 6.8 2.9 +3.9 5
4 GIL Vicente 6 5.4 1.6 +3.8 8
5 Santa Clara 7 7.3 3.7 +3.6 15
6 Sporting CP 7 5.9 2.7 +3.2 15
7 SC Braga 6 1.8 0.4 +1.4 11
8 Maritimo 7 4.8 4.7 +0.1 8
9 Estrela 7 4.4 5.2 -0.8 10
10 Famalicao 7 3.3 4.2 -0.9 7
11 Arouca 7 4.8 6.4 -1.6 11
12 Alverca 7 3.9 5.5 -1.6 8
13 Nacional 7 4.6 7.5 -2.9 4
14 Estoril 7 3.3 6.2 -2.9 2
15 Moreirense 7 1.0 3.9 -2.9 8
16 Casa Pia 7 2.3 6.3 -4.0 4
17 Academico Viseu 7 4.8 9.0 -4.2 11
18 Rio Ave 7 2.4 8.3 -5.9 4