Prediction Audit: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guimaraes

Sep 06, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.63

0 0.73

xG Accuracy: 52%

Casa Pia

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Guimaraes at 57.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Guimaraes Draw ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-0, 2-0, 1-1, 0-0, 2-1 0-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Guimaraes	57.5%	65.0%	-7.5 pp	Market Higher
Draw	27.4%	22.0%	+5.4 pp	Model Higher
Casa Pia	15.1%	13.0%	+2.1 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Guimaraes's win probability at 65.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 57.5%, a difference of 7.5 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Guimaraes. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 0–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Guimaraes; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Guimaraes by 7.5 percentage points (65.0% vs model 57.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 06, 2026 · 19:37 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Guimaraes 57.5% · Draw 27.4% · Casa Pia 15.1%
- xG · Guimaraes 1.63 — Casa Pia 0.73
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Guimaraes 1.48 · Draw 4.38 · Casa Pia 7.41
- Implied 1X2 · Guimaraes 65.0% · Draw 22.0% · Casa Pia 13.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Guimaraes 1.48 · Draw 4.38 · Casa Pia 7.41
- Implied 1X2 · Guimaraes 65.0% · Draw 22.0% · Casa Pia 13.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 06, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 62/100

Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6370193

Closing Odds 1.48

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Draw · Guimaraes 0–0 Casa Pia

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primeira Liga
Fixture: Guimaraes vs Casa Pia
Kickoff: 2026-09-06 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 45.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 10.0%
xG (showing): Guimaraes 1.63 — Casa Pia 0.73 (total xG ≈ 2.36)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Primeira Liga Matches Track Guimaraes Next Match Prediction Track Casa Pia Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Explore More Predictions Content

Get Premium Predictions for Guimaraes & Casa Pia!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now

Back to Predictions

Primeira Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Benfica	7	22	7	+15	16
2	FC Porto	7	18	3	+15	21
3	Sporting CP	7	17	8	+9	15
4	Estrela	7	14	14	0	10
5	Santa Clara	7	11	4	+7	15
6	Arouca	7	10	7	+3	11
7	Famalicao	7	9	7	+2	7
8	Academico Viseu	7	9	9	0	11
9	Alverca	7	9	11	-2	8
10	Maritimo	7	8	12	-4	8
11	Moreirense	7	8	14	-6	8
12	SC Braga	6	7	5	+2	11
13	Nacional	7	7	15	-8	4
14	GIL Vicente	6	5	5	0	8
15	Guimaraes	7	5	8	-3	5
16	Rio Ave	7	5	15	-10	4
17	Estoril	7	3	10	-7	2
18	Casa Pia	7	3	16	-13	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Benfica	7	8.2	1.7	+6.5	16
2	FC Porto	7	9.0	3.6	+5.4	21
3	Guimaraes	7	6.8	2.9	+3.9	5
4	GIL Vicente	6	5.4	1.6	+3.8	8
5	Santa Clara	7	7.3	3.7	+3.6	15
6	Sporting CP	7	5.9	2.7	+3.2	15
7	SC Braga	6	1.8	0.4	+1.4	11
8	Maritimo	7	4.8	4.7	+0.1	8
9	Estrela	7	4.4	5.2	-0.8	10
10	Famalicao	7	3.3	4.2	-0.9	7
11	Arouca	7	4.8	6.4	-1.6	11
12	Alverca	7	3.9	5.5	-1.6	8
13	Nacional	7	4.6	7.5	-2.9	4
14	Estoril	7	3.3	6.2	-2.9	2
15	Moreirense	7	1.0	3.9	-2.9	8
16	Casa Pia	7	2.3	6.3	-4.0	4
17	Academico Viseu	7	4.8	9.0	-4.2	11
18	Rio Ave	7	2.4	8.3	-5.9	4