Prediction Audit: Maritimo vs Benfica Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Maritimo

Sep 05, 2026 - 17:00

0 1.08

3 1.64

xG Accuracy: 51%

Benfica

AI correctly predicted the Benfica win.

The match finished 0–3, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Benfica Benfica ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Maritimo	19.1%	6.6%	+12.4 pp	Model Edge
Draw	24.9%	12.7%	+12.2 pp	Model Edge
Benfica	56.0%	80.7%	-24.7 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Benfica's win probability at 80.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 56.0%, a difference of 24.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Benfica win 0–3).

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.72) — 3 goals materialised
Benfica attacking xG significantly stronger (1.64 vs 1.08)
Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Benfica higher (80.7% vs model 56.0%, 24.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Benfica win 0–3).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Sep 05, 2026 · 19:50 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Maritimo 19.1% · Draw 24.9% · Benfica 56.1%
- xG · Maritimo 1.08 — Benfica 1.64
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Maritimo 13.97 · Draw 7.28 · Benfica 1.20
- Implied 1X2 · Maritimo 6.9% · Draw 13.2% · Benfica 80.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Maritimo 14.48 · Draw 7.57 · Benfica 1.19
- Implied 1X2 · Maritimo 6.6% · Draw 12.7% · Benfica 80.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Sep 05, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Benfica win · 0–3
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (25 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

Moderate model lean
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100

Betting Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 30, 2026 · 03:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6164265

Closing Odds 1.19

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Benfica win · Maritimo 0–3 Benfica

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Primeira Liga
Fixture: Maritimo vs Benfica
Kickoff: 2026-09-05 17:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 10.0% · Draw 45.0% · Away 45.0%
xG (showing): Maritimo 1.08 — Benfica 1.64 (total xG ≈ 2.72)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
Correct score (top bin): N/A

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 28, 2026 (UTC)

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Primeira Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Benfica	7	22	7	+15	16
2	FC Porto	7	18	3	+15	21
3	Sporting CP	7	17	8	+9	15
4	Estrela	7	14	14	0	10
5	Santa Clara	7	11	4	+7	15
6	Arouca	7	10	7	+3	11
7	Famalicao	7	9	7	+2	7
8	Academico Viseu	7	9	9	0	11
9	Alverca	7	9	11	-2	8
10	Maritimo	7	8	12	-4	8
11	Moreirense	7	8	14	-6	8
12	SC Braga	6	7	5	+2	11
13	Nacional	7	7	15	-8	4
14	GIL Vicente	6	5	5	0	8
15	Guimaraes	7	5	8	-3	5
16	Rio Ave	7	5	15	-10	4
17	Estoril	7	3	10	-7	2
18	Casa Pia	7	3	16	-13	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Benfica	7	8.2	1.7	+6.5	16
2	FC Porto	7	9.0	3.6	+5.4	21
3	Guimaraes	7	6.8	2.9	+3.9	5
4	GIL Vicente	6	5.4	1.6	+3.8	8
5	Santa Clara	7	7.3	3.7	+3.6	15
6	Sporting CP	7	5.9	2.7	+3.2	15
7	SC Braga	6	1.8	0.4	+1.4	11
8	Maritimo	7	4.8	4.7	+0.1	8
9	Estrela	7	4.4	5.2	-0.8	10
10	Famalicao	7	3.3	4.2	-0.9	7
11	Arouca	7	4.8	6.4	-1.6	11
12	Alverca	7	3.9	5.5	-1.6	8
13	Nacional	7	4.6	7.5	-2.9	4
14	Estoril	7	3.3	6.2	-2.9	2
15	Moreirense	7	1.0	3.9	-2.9	8
16	Casa Pia	7	2.3	6.3	-4.0	4
17	Academico Viseu	7	4.8	9.0	-4.2	11
18	Rio Ave	7	2.4	8.3	-5.9	4