Prediction Audit: SC Braga vs Guimaraes Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SC Braga

Aug 31, 2026 - 19:15

1 1.03

0 1.36

xG Accuracy: 68%

Guimaraes

The model missed the final outcome (SC Braga win 1–0).

The model had projected Guimaraes at 35.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
1X2 Guimaraes SC Braga ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 0-0, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
SC Braga	33.7%	51.4%	-17.6 pp	Market Higher
Draw	30.5%	27.7%	+2.9 pp	Aligned
Guimaraes	35.8%	21.0%	+14.8 pp	Model Edge

The closing market estimates SC Braga's win probability at 51.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.7%, a difference of 17.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was SC Braga win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about SC Braga than the current fair estimate.

Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

1X2: model leaned Guimaraes; match finished SC Braga

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Guimaraes by 17.6 percentage points (53.4% vs model 35.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 31, 2026 · 19:24 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SC Braga 33.7% · Draw 30.5% · Guimaraes 35.8%
- xG · SC Braga 1.03 — Guimaraes 1.36
Aug 31, 2026 · 18:44 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SC Braga 1.88 · Draw 3.49 · Guimaraes 4.60
- Implied 1X2 · SC Braga 51.4% · Draw 27.7% · Guimaraes 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 31, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · SC Braga 1.88 · Draw 3.49 · Guimaraes 4.60
- Implied 1X2 · SC Braga 51.4% · Draw 27.7% · Guimaraes 21.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 31, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result SC Braga win · 1–0
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 54/100 · Moderate

Validation: Warning
Large market gap (18 pp)

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Pricing remains divergent
Validation warning

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 3/100

Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 25, 2026 · 03:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5405515

Closing Odds 1.88

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result SC Braga win · SC Braga 1–0 Guimaraes

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Primeira Liga
Fixture: SC Braga vs Guimaraes
Kickoff: 2026-08-31 19:15:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.7% · Draw 30.5% · Away 35.8%
xG (showing): SC Braga 1.03 — Guimaraes 1.36 (total xG ≈ 2.39)
Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Guimaraes
Model: 35.8% · Implied: 21.0% · Probability edge: +14.8 pts · Est. EV: +7.1%
BTTS (model): Yes 49.5% · No 50.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.8%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primeira Liga — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	7
14	Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	2

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Benfica	7	22	7	+15	16
2	FC Porto	7	18	3	+15	21
3	Sporting CP	7	17	8	+9	15
4	Estrela	7	14	14	0	10
5	Santa Clara	7	11	4	+7	15
6	Arouca	7	10	7	+3	11
7	Famalicao	7	9	7	+2	7
8	Academico Viseu	7	9	9	0	11
9	Alverca	7	9	11	-2	8
10	Maritimo	7	8	12	-4	8
11	Moreirense	7	8	14	-6	8
12	SC Braga	6	7	5	+2	11
13	Nacional	7	7	15	-8	4
14	GIL Vicente	6	5	5	0	8
15	Guimaraes	7	5	8	-3	5
16	Rio Ave	7	5	15	-10	4
17	Estoril	7	3	10	-7	2
18	Casa Pia	7	3	16	-13	4

#	TEAM	MP	xG	xGC	+/-	PTS
1	Benfica	7	8.2	1.7	+6.5	16
2	FC Porto	7	9.0	3.6	+5.4	21
3	Guimaraes	7	6.8	2.9	+3.9	5
4	GIL Vicente	6	5.4	1.6	+3.8	8
5	Santa Clara	7	7.3	3.7	+3.6	15
6	Sporting CP	7	5.9	2.7	+3.2	15
7	SC Braga	6	1.8	0.4	+1.4	11
8	Maritimo	7	4.8	4.7	+0.1	8
9	Estrela	7	4.4	5.2	-0.8	10
10	Famalicao	7	3.3	4.2	-0.9	7
11	Arouca	7	4.8	6.4	-1.6	11
12	Alverca	7	3.9	5.5	-1.6	8
13	Nacional	7	4.6	7.5	-2.9	4
14	Estoril	7	3.3	6.2	-2.9	2
15	Moreirense	7	1.0	3.9	-2.9	8
16	Casa Pia	7	2.3	6.3	-4.0	4
17	Academico Viseu	7	4.8	9.0	-4.2	11
18	Rio Ave	7	2.4	8.3	-5.9	4