Predictions / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga / Famalicao vs Maritimo

Prediction Audit: Famalicao vs Maritimo Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Famalicao Famalicao
Aug 16, 2026 - 19:30
1 1.45
2 1.19
xG Accuracy: 71%
Maritimo Maritimo

The model missed the final outcome (Maritimo win 1–2).

The model had projected Famalicao at 45.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Famalicao Maritimo ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Famalicao higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Famalicao -9.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Famalicao 45.3% 54.6% -9.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 28.7% 27.0% +1.7 pp Aligned
Maritimo 26.1% 18.4% +7.6 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Famalicao's win probability at 54.6%, compared with the model's estimate of 45.3%, a difference of 9.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Maritimo win 1–2.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Famalicao. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.64) — 3 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Famalicao; match finished Maritimo

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Famalicao by 9.3 percentage points (54.6% vs model 45.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 16, 2026 · 19:32 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Famalicao 45.3% · Draw 28.7% · Maritimo 26.1%
    • xG · Famalicao 1.45 — Maritimo 1.19
  2. Aug 16, 2026 · 19:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Famalicao 1.77 · Draw 3.58 · Maritimo 5.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Famalicao 54.6% · Draw 27.0% · Maritimo 18.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 16, 2026 · 19:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Famalicao 1.77 · Draw 3.58 · Maritimo 5.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Famalicao 54.6% · Draw 27.0% · Maritimo 18.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 16, 2026 · 19:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Maritimo win · 1–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 53/100
Betting Confidence 77/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 11, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3615145

Closing Odds 1.77
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Maritimo win · Famalicao 1–2 Maritimo
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: Famalicao vs Maritimo
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-16 19:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 45.3% · Draw 28.7% · Away 26.1%
  • xG (showing): Famalicao 1.45 — Maritimo 1.19 (total xG ≈ 2.64)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 50.8% · Over 2.5 49.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.9% · No 45.1%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.3%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 11
6 SC Braga 6 3 2 1 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 11
8 Estrela 7 2 4 1 10
9 GIL Vicente 6 2 2 2 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 7
14 Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 22 7 +15 16
2 FC Porto 7 18 3 +15 21
3 Sporting CP 7 17 8 +9 15
4 Estrela 7 14 14 0 10
5 Santa Clara 7 11 4 +7 15
6 Arouca 7 10 7 +3 11
7 Famalicao 7 9 7 +2 7
8 Academico Viseu 7 9 9 0 11
9 Alverca 7 9 11 -2 8
10 Maritimo 7 8 12 -4 8
11 Moreirense 7 8 14 -6 8
12 SC Braga 6 7 5 +2 11
13 Nacional 7 7 15 -8 4
14 GIL Vicente 6 5 5 0 8
15 Guimaraes 7 5 8 -3 5
16 Rio Ave 7 5 15 -10 4
17 Estoril 7 3 10 -7 2
18 Casa Pia 7 3 16 -13 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 8.2 1.7 +6.5 16
2 FC Porto 7 9.0 3.6 +5.4 21
3 Guimaraes 7 6.8 2.9 +3.9 5
4 GIL Vicente 6 5.4 1.6 +3.8 8
5 Santa Clara 7 7.3 3.7 +3.6 15
6 Sporting CP 7 5.9 2.7 +3.2 15
7 SC Braga 6 1.8 0.4 +1.4 11
8 Maritimo 7 4.8 4.7 +0.1 8
9 Estrela 7 4.4 5.2 -0.8 10
10 Famalicao 7 3.3 4.2 -0.9 7
11 Arouca 7 4.8 6.4 -1.6 11
12 Alverca 7 3.9 5.5 -1.6 8
13 Nacional 7 4.6 7.5 -2.9 4
14 Estoril 7 3.3 6.2 -2.9 2
15 Moreirense 7 1.0 3.9 -2.9 8
16 Casa Pia 7 2.3 6.3 -4.0 4
17 Academico Viseu 7 4.8 9.0 -4.2 11
18 Rio Ave 7 2.4 8.3 -5.9 4