Predictions / Football / Portugal. Primeira Liga / Estoril vs Famalicao

Prediction Audit: Estoril vs Famalicao Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Estoril Estoril
Aug 07, 2026 - 19:15
1 1.77
1 1.48
xG Accuracy: 71%
Famalicao Famalicao

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Estoril at 43.3%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Estoril Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 2-1, 1-2, 1-0, 2-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Estoril considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Estoril +12.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Estoril 43.3% 31.1% +12.3 pp Model Edge
Draw 25.6% 29.6% -4.0 pp Aligned
Famalicao 31.1% 39.3% -8.2 pp Market Higher

The statistical model estimates Estoril's win probability at 43.3%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 31.1%, a difference of 12.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Estoril.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Estoril; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Estoril by 12.3 percentage points (31.0% vs model 43.3%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Estoril 43.3% · Draw 25.6% · Famalicao 31.1%
    • xG · Estoril 1.77 — Famalicao 1.48
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 19:05 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE10
    • 1X2 odds · Estoril 3.10 · Draw 3.25 · Famalicao 2.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Estoril 31.1% · Draw 29.6% · Famalicao 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 07, 2026 · 19:14 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Estoril 3.10 · Draw 3.25 · Famalicao 2.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Estoril 31.1% · Draw 29.6% · Famalicao 39.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 07, 2026 · 19:15 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (12 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 13/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:56 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2683553

Closing Odds 3.1
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Estoril 1–1 Famalicao
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Primeira Liga
  • Fixture: Estoril vs Famalicao
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 19:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 43.3% · Draw 25.6% · Away 31.1%
  • xG (showing): Estoril 1.77 — Famalicao 1.48 (total xG ≈ 3.25)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Estoril
  • Model: 43.3% · Implied: 31.1% · Probability edge: +12.2 pts · Est. EV: +5.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 65.4% · No 34.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (10.2%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Primeira Liga Primeira Liga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 FC Porto 7 7 0 0 21
2 Benfica 7 5 1 1 16
3 Sporting CP 7 4 3 0 15
4 Santa Clara 7 4 3 0 15
5 Arouca 7 3 2 2 11
6 SC Braga 6 3 2 1 11
7 Academico Viseu 7 3 2 2 11
8 Estrela 7 2 4 1 10
9 GIL Vicente 6 2 2 2 8
10 Alverca 7 2 2 3 8
11 Maritimo 7 2 2 3 8
12 Moreirense 7 2 2 3 8
13 Famalicao 7 1 4 2 7
14 Guimaraes 7 1 2 4 5
15 Nacional 7 1 1 5 4
16 Rio Ave 7 1 1 5 4
17 Casa Pia 7 1 1 5 4
18 Estoril 7 0 2 5 2
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 22 7 +15 16
2 FC Porto 7 18 3 +15 21
3 Sporting CP 7 17 8 +9 15
4 Estrela 7 14 14 0 10
5 Santa Clara 7 11 4 +7 15
6 Arouca 7 10 7 +3 11
7 Famalicao 7 9 7 +2 7
8 Academico Viseu 7 9 9 0 11
9 Alverca 7 9 11 -2 8
10 Maritimo 7 8 12 -4 8
11 Moreirense 7 8 14 -6 8
12 SC Braga 6 7 5 +2 11
13 Nacional 7 7 15 -8 4
14 GIL Vicente 6 5 5 0 8
15 Guimaraes 7 5 8 -3 5
16 Rio Ave 7 5 15 -10 4
17 Estoril 7 3 10 -7 2
18 Casa Pia 7 3 16 -13 4
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 Benfica 7 8.2 1.7 +6.5 16
2 FC Porto 7 9.0 3.6 +5.4 21
3 Guimaraes 7 6.8 2.9 +3.9 5
4 GIL Vicente 6 5.4 1.6 +3.8 8
5 Santa Clara 7 7.3 3.7 +3.6 15
6 Sporting CP 7 5.9 2.7 +3.2 15
7 SC Braga 6 1.8 0.4 +1.4 11
8 Maritimo 7 4.8 4.7 +0.1 8
9 Estrela 7 4.4 5.2 -0.8 10
10 Famalicao 7 3.3 4.2 -0.9 7
11 Arouca 7 4.8 6.4 -1.6 11
12 Alverca 7 3.9 5.5 -1.6 8
13 Nacional 7 4.6 7.5 -2.9 4
14 Estoril 7 3.3 6.2 -2.9 2
15 Moreirense 7 1.0 3.9 -2.9 8
16 Casa Pia 7 2.3 6.3 -4.0 4
17 Academico Viseu 7 4.8 9.0 -4.2 11
18 Rio Ave 7 2.4 8.3 -5.9 4