Predictions / Football / Germany. Bundesliga / FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04

Prediction Audit: FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04 Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

FC Augsburg FC Augsburg
Aug 30, 2026 - 15:30
3 1.09
0 1.85
xG Accuracy: 36%
FC Schalke 04 FC Schalke 04

The model missed the final outcome (FC Augsburg win 3–0).

The model had projected FC Schalke 04 at 53.8%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 FC Schalke 04 FC Augsburg ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-2, 0-1, 0-2, 1-3 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates FC Schalke 04 considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: FC Schalke 04 +24.7 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
FC Augsburg 20.8% 43.4% -22.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 25.5% 27.6% -2.1 pp Aligned
FC Schalke 04 53.8% 29.0% +24.7 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates FC Schalke 04's win probability at 53.8%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 29.0%, a difference of 24.7 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was FC Augsburg win 3–0.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.94) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned FC Schalke 04; match finished FC Augsburg

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on FC Schalke 04 by 24.7 percentage points (29.1% vs model 53.8%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 30, 2026 · 19:34 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · FC Augsburg 20.8% · Draw 25.4% · FC Schalke 04 53.8%
    • xG · FC Augsburg 1.09 — FC Schalke 04 1.85
  2. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:07 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · FC Augsburg 2.24 · Draw 3.53 · FC Schalke 04 3.35
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Augsburg 43.4% · Draw 27.6% · FC Schalke 04 29.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · FC Augsburg 2.24 · Draw 3.53 · FC Schalke 04 3.35
    • Implied 1X2 · FC Augsburg 43.4% · Draw 27.6% · FC Schalke 04 29.0%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 30, 2026 · 15:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result FC Augsburg win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Cautious / Wait

Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".

Historical Decision Wait
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 51/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (25 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 0/100
Monitoring Confidence 14/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 24, 2026 · 02:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5298873

Closing Odds 3.35
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result FC Augsburg win · FC Augsburg 3–0 FC Schalke 04
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Bundesliga
  • Fixture: FC Augsburg vs FC Schalke 04
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-30 15:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 50.0% · Draw 50.0% · Away 0.0%
  • xG (showing): FC Augsburg 1.09 — FC Schalke 04 1.85 (total xG ≈ 2.94)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): See the Over/Under and BTTS cards for any directional lean text.
  • BTTS (model): Yes N/A · No N/A
  • Correct score (top bin): N/A

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Wait

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Bundesliga Matches Track FC Augsburg Next Match Prediction Track FC Schalke 04 Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for FC Augsburg & FC Schalke 04!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Bundesliga Bundesliga — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Borussia Dortmund 4 4 0 0 12
2 Bayern München 4 3 1 0 10
3 SC Freiburg 4 3 1 0 10
4 FC Augsburg 4 2 1 1 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 2 1 1 7
6 FSV Mainz 05 4 2 1 1 7
7 SV Elversberg 4 2 1 1 7
8 Werder Bremen 4 2 1 1 7
9 RB Leipzig 4 2 0 2 6
10 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 1 2 1 5
11 FC Schalke 04 4 1 2 1 5
12 SC Paderborn 07 4 1 1 2 4
13 1.FC Köln 4 1 1 2 4
14 1899 Hoffenheim 4 1 0 3 3
15 VfB Stuttgart 4 1 0 3 3
16 Hamburger SV 4 1 0 3 3
17 Union Berlin 4 0 1 3 1
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 0 0 4 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Bayern München 4 14 2 +12 10
2 SC Freiburg 4 12 3 +9 10
3 FC Augsburg 4 11 6 +5 7
4 Bayer Leverkusen 4 10 5 +5 7
5 FSV Mainz 05 4 10 6 +4 7
6 Borussia Dortmund 4 9 2 +7 12
7 RB Leipzig 4 9 5 +4 6
8 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 9 10 -1 5
9 SV Elversberg 4 8 7 +1 7
10 Werder Bremen 4 8 8 0 7
11 1899 Hoffenheim 4 7 10 -3 3
12 1.FC Köln 4 6 9 -3 4
13 VfB Stuttgart 4 6 9 -3 3
14 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 6 16 -10 0
15 Union Berlin 4 4 17 -13 1
16 FC Schalke 04 4 3 4 -1 5
17 SC Paderborn 07 4 3 5 -2 4
18 Hamburger SV 4 2 13 -11 3
# TEAM MP xG xGC +/- PTS
1 RB Leipzig 4 4.0 0.9 +3.1 6
2 Bayern München 4 3.9 0.9 +3.0 10
3 SC Freiburg 4 1.9 0.5 +1.4 10
4 FC Augsburg 4 4.7 3.8 +0.9 7
5 Bayer Leverkusen 4 1.9 1.1 +0.8 7
6 Borussia Dortmund 4 1.4 0.7 +0.7 12
7 Eintracht Frankfurt 4 3.6 3.0 +0.6 5
8 Union Berlin 4 1.9 1.4 +0.5 1
9 FSV Mainz 05 4 1.2 0.8 +0.4 7
10 1899 Hoffenheim 4 1.8 1.7 +0.1 3
11 1.FC Köln 4 1.7 1.8 -0.1 4
12 SC Paderborn 07 4 0.8 1.2 -0.4 4
13 Hamburger SV 4 0.7 1.4 -0.7 3
14 SV Elversberg 4 1.1 1.9 -0.8 7
15 Werder Bremen 4 0.5 1.9 -1.4 7
16 FC Schalke 04 4 1.5 3.5 -2.0 5
17 VfB Stuttgart 4 0.9 3.9 -3.0 3
18 Borussia Mönchengladbach 4 0.9 4.0 -3.1 0