Predictions / Football / Netherlands. Eredivisie Women / PEC Zwolle W vs De Graafschap W

Prediction Audit: PEC Zwolle W vs De Graafschap W Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

PEC Zwolle W PEC Zwolle W
Sep 20, 2026 - 10:15
2 1.31
3 1.29
xG Accuracy: 52%
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De Graafschap W

The model missed the final outcome (De Graafschap W win 2–3).

The model had projected PEC Zwolle W at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 PEC Zwolle W De Graafschap W ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned PEC Zwolle W; match finished De Graafschap W

Market lesson

The full-time result was De Graafschap W win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 14, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · PEC Zwolle W 1.31 — De Graafschap W 1.29
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 10:15 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result De Graafschap W win · 2–3
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:07 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8661893

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result De Graafschap W win · PEC Zwolle W 2–3 De Graafschap W
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Eredivisie Women
  • Fixture: PEC Zwolle W vs De Graafschap W
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 10:15:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.7%
  • xG (showing): PEC Zwolle W 1.31 — De Graafschap W 1.29 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Eredivisie Women Eredivisie Women — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Twente W 5 5 0 0 15
2 Ajax W 5 4 0 1 12
3 AZ 5 4 0 1 12
4 PSV/Eindhoven W 5 2 1 2 7
5 ADO Den Haag W 5 2 1 2 7
6 De Graafschap W 5 2 0 3 6
7 Feyenoord W 5 2 0 3 6
8 Heerenveen W 5 1 1 3 4
9 PEC Zwolle W 5 1 0 4 3
10 Utrecht W 5 0 1 4 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Twente W 5 22 3 +19 15
2 ADO Den Haag W 5 11 15 -4 7
3 PSV/Eindhoven W 5 10 8 +2 7
4 Ajax W 5 9 4 +5 12
5 AZ 5 9 8 +1 12
6 PEC Zwolle W 5 8 13 -5 3
7 De Graafschap W 5 7 8 -1 6
8 Heerenveen W 5 7 11 -4 4
9 Feyenoord W 5 6 13 -7 6
10 Utrecht W 5 4 10 -6 1
Eredivisie Women Netherlands. Eredivisie Women Predictions