Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Valenciennes vs Le Puy Foot

Prediction Audit: Valenciennes vs Le Puy Foot Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Valenciennes Valenciennes
Sep 26, 2026 - 18:45
2 1.27
1 1.33
xG Accuracy: 75%
Le Puy Foot Le Puy Foot

The model missed the final outcome (Valenciennes win 2–1).

The model had projected Le Puy Foot at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Le Puy Foot Valenciennes ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Valenciennes higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Valenciennes -7.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Valenciennes 33.8% 41.1% -7.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.8% +0.9 pp Aligned
Le Puy Foot 36.6% 30.1% +6.4 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Valenciennes's win probability at 41.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 7.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Valenciennes win 2–1.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Valenciennes. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Exact score 2–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Le Puy Foot by 7.3 percentage points (43.9% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Valenciennes 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Le Puy Foot 36.6%
    • xG · Valenciennes 1.27 — Le Puy Foot 1.33
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 18:15 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Valenciennes 2.31 · Draw 3.36 · Le Puy Foot 3.14
    • Implied 1X2 · Valenciennes 41.3% · Draw 28.4% · Le Puy Foot 30.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Valenciennes 2.32 · Draw 3.31 · Le Puy Foot 3.16
    • Implied 1X2 · Valenciennes 41.1% · Draw 28.8% · Le Puy Foot 30.1%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Valenciennes win · 2–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 22/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10118730

Closing Odds 2.32
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Valenciennes win · Valenciennes 2–1 Le Puy Foot
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Valenciennes vs Le Puy Foot
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Valenciennes 1.27 — Le Puy Foot 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Under 2.5 goals
  • Model: 51.8% · Implied: 48.8% · Probability edge: +3.0 pts · Est. EV: +3.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

Early match state can move realised goals away from pre-kick projections.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Rouen 8 5 2 1 17
2 Caen 8 5 0 3 15
3 La Roche VF 7 4 3 0 15
4 Concarneau 7 3 3 1 12
5 Thionville Lusitanos 7 3 3 1 12
6 Amiens 7 3 2 2 11
7 Cannes 7 2 5 0 11
8 Versailles 7 3 1 3 10
9 Le Puy Foot 7 3 1 3 10
10 Bastia 7 3 1 3 10
11 Gobelins 7 2 3 2 9
12 Quevilly 7 2 3 2 9
13 Fleury 91 7 2 3 2 9
14 Orleans 7 2 1 4 7
15 Valenciennes 7 1 2 4 5
16 Aubagne 7 1 1 5 4
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 7 1 1 5 4
18 Villefranche 7 1 1 5 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rouen 8 15 5 +10 17
2 Caen 8 15 9 +6 15
3 Thionville Lusitanos 7 13 11 +2 12
4 Fleury 91 7 11 8 +3 9
5 La Roche VF 7 10 6 +4 15
6 Versailles 7 10 11 -1 10
7 Concarneau 7 9 6 +3 12
8 Le Puy Foot 7 9 7 +2 10
9 Amiens 7 8 2 +6 11
10 Cannes 7 8 3 +5 11
11 Valenciennes 7 7 12 -5 5
12 Quevilly 7 6 8 -2 9
13 Bastia 7 6 9 -3 10
14 Orleans 7 6 10 -4 7
15 Villefranche 7 6 17 -11 4
16 Gobelins 7 5 7 -2 9
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 7 4 12 -8 4
18 Aubagne 7 3 8 -5 4
National 1 France. National 1 Predictions