The model missed the final outcome (Amiens win 0–3).
The model had projected Bastia at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Bastia Amiens ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bastia | 36.1% | 44.9% | -8.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 28.9% | +0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Amiens | 34.2% | 26.2% | +8.0 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Bastia's win probability at 44.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 8.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Amiens win 0–3.
Market Assessment
The market and model broadly agree on Bastia. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Bastia by 8.8 percentage points (44.9% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Bastia 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Amiens 34.2%
- xG · Bastia 1.32 — Amiens 1.28
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Bastia 2.14 · Draw 3.25 · Amiens 3.64
- Implied 1X2 · Bastia 44.5% · Draw 29.3% · Amiens 26.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Bastia 2.12 · Draw 3.29 · Amiens 3.63
- Implied 1X2 · Bastia 44.9% · Draw 28.9% · Amiens 26.2%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 12:45 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Amiens win · 0–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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National 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rouen | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| 2 | Caen | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | La Roche VF | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
| 4 | Concarneau | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 5 | Thionville Lusitanos | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Amiens | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Cannes | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Versailles | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Le Puy Foot | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | Bastia | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 11 | Gobelins | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Quevilly | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 13 | Fleury 91 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 14 | Orleans | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 15 | Valenciennes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 |
| 16 | Aubagne | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 18 | Villefranche | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rouen | 8 | 15 | 5 | +10 | 17 |
| 2 | Caen | 8 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 15 |
| 3 | Thionville Lusitanos | 7 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Fleury 91 | 7 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | La Roche VF | 7 | 10 | 6 | +4 | 15 |
| 6 | Versailles | 7 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 10 |
| 7 | Concarneau | 7 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 12 |
| 8 | Le Puy Foot | 7 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 10 |
| 9 | Amiens | 7 | 8 | 2 | +6 | 11 |
| 10 | Cannes | 7 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 11 |
| 11 | Valenciennes | 7 | 7 | 12 | -5 | 5 |
| 12 | Quevilly | 7 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Bastia | 7 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 10 |
| 14 | Orleans | 7 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 7 |
| 15 | Villefranche | 7 | 6 | 17 | -11 | 4 |
| 16 | Gobelins | 7 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 9 |
| 17 | Bourg-en-bresse 01 | 7 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4 |
| 18 | Aubagne | 7 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
