Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Cannes vs Le Puy Foot

Prediction Audit: Cannes vs Le Puy Foot Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cannes Cannes
Aug 29, 2026 - 12:45
2 1.29
0 1.31
xG Accuracy: 57%
Le Puy Foot Le Puy Foot

The model missed the final outcome (Cannes win 2–0).

The model had projected Le Puy Foot at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Le Puy Foot Cannes ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 2-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Cannes higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Cannes -9.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Cannes 34.7% 43.9% -9.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.6% +2.0 pp Aligned
Le Puy Foot 35.6% 28.4% +7.2 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Cannes's win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 34.7%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Cannes win 2–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Cannes. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Le Puy Foot; match finished Cannes

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Le Puy Foot by 9.2 percentage points (44.8% vs model 35.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 29, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Cannes 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Le Puy Foot 35.6%
    • xG · Cannes 1.29 — Le Puy Foot 1.31
  2. Aug 29, 2026 · 12:14 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Cannes 2.21 · Draw 3.34 · Le Puy Foot 3.36
    • Implied 1X2 · Cannes 43.1% · Draw 28.5% · Le Puy Foot 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 29, 2026 · 12:44 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Cannes 2.17 · Draw 3.45 · Le Puy Foot 3.35
    • Implied 1X2 · Cannes 43.9% · Draw 27.6% · Le Puy Foot 28.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 29, 2026 · 12:45 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Cannes win · 2–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 23, 2026 · 02:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5132612

Closing Odds 2.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Cannes win · Cannes 2–0 Le Puy Foot
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Cannes vs Le Puy Foot
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-29 12:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · Away 35.6%
  • xG (showing): Cannes 1.29 — Le Puy Foot 1.31 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +1.7%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.6%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 16, 2026 (UTC)

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National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Thionville Lusitanos 5 3 2 0 11
2 Rouen 5 3 2 0 11
3 La Roche VF 5 3 2 0 11
4 Caen 5 3 0 2 9
5 Cannes 5 2 3 0 9
6 Gobelins 5 2 2 1 8
7 Le Puy Foot 5 2 1 2 7
8 Orleans 5 2 1 2 7
9 Amiens 5 2 1 2 7
10 Concarneau 5 1 3 1 6
11 Bastia 5 2 0 3 6
12 Versailles 5 2 0 3 6
13 Quevilly 5 1 2 2 5
14 Valenciennes 5 1 2 2 5
15 Fleury 91 5 1 2 2 5
16 Aubagne 5 1 1 3 4
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 5 1 0 4 3
18 Villefranche 5 1 0 4 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Thionville Lusitanos 5 12 6 +6 11
2 Caen 5 10 5 +5 9
3 Rouen 5 8 2 +6 11
4 Fleury 91 5 8 6 +2 5
5 Cannes 5 7 2 +5 9
6 La Roche VF 5 7 4 +3 11
7 Amiens 5 6 2 +4 7
8 Orleans 5 6 4 +2 7
9 Versailles 5 6 11 -5 6
10 Concarneau 5 5 5 0 6
11 Villefranche 5 5 13 -8 3
12 Gobelins 5 4 4 0 8
13 Le Puy Foot 5 4 4 0 7
14 Quevilly 5 4 7 -3 5
15 Valenciennes 5 4 7 -3 5
16 Bastia 5 4 8 -4 6
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 5 3 10 -7 3
18 Aubagne 5 2 5 -3 4
National 1 France. National 1 Predictions