Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen

Prediction Audit: Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Thionville Lusitanos Thionville Lusitanos
Aug 14, 2026 - 17:00
4 1.27
3 1.33
xG Accuracy: 30%
Caen Caen

The model missed the final outcome (Thionville Lusitanos win 4–3).

The model had projected Caen at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Caen Thionville Lusitanos ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Thionville Lusitanos higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Thionville Lusitanos -10.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Thionville Lusitanos 33.8% 43.9% -10.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 27.6% +2.1 pp Aligned
Caen 36.6% 28.6% +8.0 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Thionville Lusitanos's win probability at 43.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 10.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.

After full time, the result was Thionville Lusitanos win 4–3.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Thionville Lusitanos than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Caen; match finished Thionville Lusitanos

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Caen by 10.1 percentage points (46.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:57 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Thionville Lusitanos 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Caen 36.6%
    • xG · Thionville Lusitanos 1.27 — Caen 1.33
  2. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Thionville Lusitanos 2.17 · Draw 3.45 · Caen 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Thionville Lusitanos 43.9% · Draw 27.6% · Caen 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 14, 2026 · 16:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
    • 1X2 odds · Thionville Lusitanos 2.17 · Draw 3.45 · Caen 3.33
    • Implied 1X2 · Thionville Lusitanos 43.9% · Draw 27.6% · Caen 28.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 14, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Thionville Lusitanos win · 4–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (10 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 17/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:43 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3230821

Closing Odds 2.17
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Thionville Lusitanos win · Thionville Lusitanos 4–3 Caen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Thionville Lusitanos vs Caen
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Thionville Lusitanos 1.27 — Caen 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 01, 2026 (UTC)

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National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Roche VF 8 5 3 0 18
2 Rouen 8 5 2 1 17
3 Caen 8 5 0 3 15
4 Concarneau 8 3 4 1 13
5 Versailles 8 4 1 3 13
6 Amiens 8 3 3 2 12
7 Cannes 8 2 6 0 12
8 Thionville Lusitanos 8 3 3 2 12
9 Gobelins 8 3 3 2 12
10 Le Puy Foot 8 3 1 4 10
11 Quevilly 8 2 4 2 10
12 Bastia 8 3 1 4 10
13 Fleury 91 8 2 3 3 9
14 Valenciennes 8 2 2 4 8
15 Orleans 8 2 2 4 8
16 Aubagne 8 2 1 5 7
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 8 1 2 5 5
18 Villefranche 8 1 1 6 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rouen 8 15 5 +10 17
2 Caen 8 15 9 +6 15
3 Thionville Lusitanos 8 14 13 +1 12
4 La Roche VF 8 12 7 +5 18
5 Fleury 91 8 12 10 +2 9
6 Versailles 8 12 12 0 13
7 Concarneau 8 10 7 +3 13
8 Le Puy Foot 8 10 9 +1 10
9 Amiens 8 9 3 +6 12
10 Valenciennes 8 9 13 -4 8
11 Cannes 8 8 3 +5 12
12 Quevilly 8 7 9 -2 10
13 Villefranche 8 7 19 -12 4
14 Gobelins 8 6 7 -1 12
15 Bastia 8 6 10 -4 10
16 Orleans 8 6 10 -4 8
17 Aubagne 8 5 9 -4 7
18 Bourg-en-bresse 01 8 5 13 -8 5
National 1 France. National 1 Predictions