Predictions / Football / France. National 1 / Rouen vs Cannes

Prediction Audit: Rouen vs Cannes Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Rouen Rouen
Aug 07, 2026 - 18:45
0 1.34
0 1.26
xG Accuracy: 49%
Cannes Cannes

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Rouen at 37.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Rouen Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Rouen; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 0–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Rouen 1.34 — Cannes 1.26
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 18:45 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:50 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2683143

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Rouen 0–0 Cannes
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: National 1
  • Fixture: Rouen vs Cannes
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 18:45:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 33.4%
  • xG (showing): Rouen 1.34 — Cannes 1.26 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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National 1 National 1 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 La Roche VF 9 6 3 0 21
2 Rouen 9 6 2 1 20
3 Concarneau 9 4 4 1 16
4 Versailles 9 5 1 3 16
5 Amiens 9 4 3 2 15
6 Cannes 9 3 6 0 15
7 Caen 9 5 0 4 15
8 Le Puy Foot 9 4 1 4 13
9 Thionville Lusitanos 9 3 3 3 12
10 Fleury 91 9 3 3 3 12
11 Gobelins 9 3 3 3 12
12 Bastia 9 3 2 4 11
13 Quevilly 9 2 4 3 10
14 Orleans 9 2 3 4 9
15 Valenciennes 9 2 2 5 8
16 Aubagne 9 2 1 6 7
17 Bourg-en-bresse 01 9 1 2 6 5
18 Villefranche 9 1 1 7 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Rouen 9 17 5 +12 20
2 Caen 9 17 12 +5 15
3 La Roche VF 9 15 8 +7 21
4 Fleury 91 9 15 12 +3 12
5 Thionville Lusitanos 9 14 14 0 12
6 Versailles 9 13 12 +1 16
7 Amiens 9 12 3 +9 15
8 Concarneau 9 12 8 +4 16
9 Cannes 9 11 4 +7 15
10 Le Puy Foot 9 11 9 +2 13
11 Valenciennes 9 9 14 -5 8
12 Quevilly 9 8 12 -4 10
13 Gobelins 9 7 9 -2 12
14 Bastia 9 7 11 -4 11
15 Orleans 9 7 11 -4 9
16 Villefranche 9 7 22 -15 4
17 Aubagne 9 6 12 -6 7
18 Bourg-en-bresse 01 9 5 15 -10 5
National 1 France. National 1 Predictions