The model missed the final outcome (Rheindorf Altach win 4–0).
The model had projected First Vienna W at 35.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 First Vienna W Rheindorf Altach ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 4-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rheindorf Altach | 34.7% | 32.8% | +1.9 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 26.6% | +3.0 pp | Aligned |
| First Vienna W | 35.6% | 40.6% | -5.0 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Rheindorf Altach win 4–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned First Vienna W; match finished Rheindorf Altach
Market lesson
The full-time result was Rheindorf Altach win 4–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Rheindorf Altach 34.7% · Draw 29.7% · First Vienna W 35.6%
- xG · Rheindorf Altach 1.29 — First Vienna W 1.31
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Rheindorf Altach 2.71 · Draw 3.34 · First Vienna W 2.19
- Implied 1X2 · Rheindorf Altach 32.8% · Draw 26.6% · First Vienna W 40.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Rheindorf Altach 2.71 · Draw 3.34 · First Vienna W 2.19
- Implied 1X2 · Rheindorf Altach 32.8% · Draw 26.6% · First Vienna W 40.6%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 20, 2026 · 10:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Rheindorf Altach win · 4–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Frauenliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Salzburg W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | First Vienna W | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | First Vienna W | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 8 | Salzburg W | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 2 |
| 10 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 4 |
