AI correctly predicted the Sturm Graz W win.
The match finished 0–4, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Sturm Graz W Sturm Graz W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 0-2, 1-0 0-4 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 26.6% | 7.3% | +19.3 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.0% | 13.7% | +15.4 pp | Model Edge |
| Sturm Graz W | 44.3% | 79.0% | -34.7 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates Sturm Graz W's win probability at 79.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 44.3%, a difference of 34.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sturm Graz W win 0–4).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Sturm Graz W attacking xG significantly stronger (1.49 vs 1.11)
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sturm Graz W higher (79.0% vs model 44.3%, 34.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sturm Graz W win 0–4).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 11:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 26.7% · Draw 29.0% · Sturm Graz W 44.3%
- xG · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 1.11 — Sturm Graz W 1.49
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 11:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 12.35 · Draw 6.60 · Sturm Graz W 1.14
- Implied 1X2 · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 7.3% · Draw 13.7% · Sturm Graz W 79.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 11:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 12.35 · Draw 6.60 · Sturm Graz W 1.14
- Implied 1X2 · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 7.3% · Draw 13.7% · Sturm Graz W 79.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sturm Graz W win · 0–4
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Fail
- Large market gap (35 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation failed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Frauenliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Salzburg W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | First Vienna W | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | First Vienna W | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 8 | Salzburg W | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 2 |
| 10 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 4 |
