AI correctly predicted the First Vienna W win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 First Vienna W First Vienna W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 0-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 29.2% | 13.3% | +16.0 pp | Model Edge |
| Draw | 29.4% | 19.0% | +10.4 pp | Model Edge |
| First Vienna W | 41.4% | 67.7% | -26.3 pp | Market Higher |
The closing market estimates First Vienna W's win probability at 67.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 26.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (First Vienna W win 0–2).
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 0–2 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced First Vienna W higher (67.7% vs model 41.4%, 26.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (First Vienna W win 0–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 29.3% · Draw 29.4% · First Vienna W 41.4%
- xG · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 1.17 — First Vienna W 1.43
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 12:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 6.56 · Draw 4.64 · First Vienna W 1.32
- Implied 1X2 · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 13.5% · Draw 19.1% · First Vienna W 67.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 13:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 6.78 · Draw 4.74 · First Vienna W 1.33
- Implied 1X2 · Kleinmünchen / BW Linz 13.3% · Draw 19.0% · First Vienna W 67.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 15, 2026 · 13:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result First Vienna W win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Historical label: Originally displayed as "Wait for validation".
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (26 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market strongly disagrees on price
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Frauenliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Salzburg W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | First Vienna W | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | First Vienna W | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 8 | Salzburg W | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 2 |
| 10 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 4 |
