AI correctly predicted the Sturm Graz W win.
The match finished 6–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Sturm Graz W Sturm Graz W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 0-0 6-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sturm Graz W | 40.4% | 54.8% | -14.4 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 23.9% | +5.5 pp | Model Higher |
| Rheindorf Altach | 30.1% | 21.3% | +8.8 pp | Model Higher |
The closing market estimates Sturm Graz W's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.4%, a difference of 14.4 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Sturm Graz W win 6–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Sturm Graz W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (8 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Sturm Graz W higher (54.8% vs model 40.4%, 14.4 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Sturm Graz W win 6–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Sturm Graz W 40.5% · Draw 29.4% · Rheindorf Altach 30.1%
- xG · Sturm Graz W 1.41 — Rheindorf Altach 1.19
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 12:00 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz W 1.62 · Draw 3.71 · Rheindorf Altach 4.17
- Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz W 54.8% · Draw 23.9% · Rheindorf Altach 21.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 12:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Sturm Graz W 1.62 · Draw 3.71 · Rheindorf Altach 4.17
- Implied 1X2 · Sturm Graz W 54.8% · Draw 23.9% · Rheindorf Altach 21.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 12:30 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Sturm Graz W win · 6–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (14 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Frauenliga — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 5 | Salzburg W | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| 7 | First Vienna W | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 10 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Pölten W | 7 | 25 | 2 | +23 | 21 |
| 2 | Sturm Graz W | 7 | 20 | 4 | +16 | 19 |
| 3 | Austria Wien W | 6 | 17 | 2 | +15 | 13 |
| 4 | Rheindorf Altach | 6 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 10 |
| 5 | First Vienna W | 8 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
| 6 | LASK | 8 | 9 | 14 | -5 | 8 |
| 7 | SK Rapid W | 7 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 6 |
| 8 | Salzburg W | 8 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 10 |
| 9 | Südburgenland W | 7 | 5 | 23 | -18 | 2 |
| 10 | Kleinmünchen / BW Linz | 8 | 4 | 18 | -14 | 4 |
