The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Paradiso at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Paradiso Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paradiso | 36.6% | 54.8% | -18.2 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 23.7% | +5.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Kreuzlingen | 33.8% | 21.4% | +12.3 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Paradiso's win probability at 54.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.6%, a difference of 18.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Paradiso than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Paradiso; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Paradiso by 18.2 percentage points (54.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Paradiso 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Kreuzlingen 33.8%
- xG · Paradiso 1.33 — Kreuzlingen 1.27
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 14:37 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Paradiso 1.67 · Draw 3.86 · Kreuzlingen 4.27
- Implied 1X2 · Paradiso 54.8% · Draw 23.7% · Kreuzlingen 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:03 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Paradiso 1.67 · Draw 3.86 · Kreuzlingen 4.27
- Implied 1X2 · Paradiso 54.8% · Draw 23.7% · Kreuzlingen 21.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 22, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (18 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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1. Liga Promotion — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| 2 | FC Schaffhausen | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 3 | Cham | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Grand-Saconnex | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 5 | Bulle | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 6 | Paradiso | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | YF Juventus | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Basel II | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 12 |
| 10 | Brühl | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Young Boys II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 12 | Zürich II | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 13 | Breitenrain | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 14 | Kreuzlingen | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Lugano II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 16 | Bavois | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 8 |
| 17 | Luzern II | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Biel-Bienne | 9 | 21 | 9 | +12 | 22 |
| 2 | Paradiso | 9 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 16 |
| 3 | Grand-Saconnex | 9 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 4 | Bulle | 9 | 18 | 12 | +6 | 17 |
| 5 | Young Boys II | 9 | 17 | 21 | -4 | 11 |
| 6 | Basel II | 9 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | FC Schaffhausen | 9 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 19 |
| 8 | Lugano II | 9 | 15 | 21 | -6 | 9 |
| 9 | Cham | 9 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 |
| 10 | Zürich II | 9 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | YF Juventus | 9 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Luzern II | 9 | 13 | 16 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Amical Saint-Prex | 9 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | Brühl | 9 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 11 |
| 15 | Bavois | 9 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 8 |
| 16 | Breitenrain | 8 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 10 |
| 17 | Kreuzlingen | 9 | 10 | 13 | -3 | 9 |
| 18 | Bellinzona | 8 | 5 | 16 | -11 | 4 |
