Prediction Audit: Cham vs Paradiso Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Cham

Aug 08, 2026 - 14:00

0 1.37

2 1.23

xG Accuracy: 56%

Paradiso

The model missed the final outcome (Paradiso win 0–2).

The model had projected Cham at 38.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
1X2 Cham Paradiso ✖ Incorrect
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
1X2: model leaned Cham; match finished Paradiso

Market lesson

The full-time result was Paradiso win 0–2, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 02, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Forecast generated
- xG · Cham 1.37 — Paradiso 1.23
Aug 08, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Paradiso win · 0–2
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Missed

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate

Validation: Pending

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Market has already priced much of the edge
Validation pending

Market Compatibility 100/100

Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 02, 2026 · 01:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2819288

Closing Odds Pending

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Paradiso win · Cham 0–2 Paradiso

Prediction ✖ Missed

Decision Grade F

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: 1. Liga Promotion
Fixture: Cham vs Paradiso
Kickoff: 2026-08-08 14:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 38.5% · Draw 29.6% · Away 31.9%
xG (showing): Cham 1.37 — Paradiso 1.23 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

The decision block shows no default Primary: Primary needs consensus EV ≥ +5.0% plus strength/reliability/calibration gates. A separate Lean/tracked gate is +2.0% (selective only). Lean labels are directional only — not bankroll-sized recommendations.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions

1. Liga Promotion — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Biel-Bienne	10	8	1	1	25
2	FC Schaffhausen	11	8	1	2	25
3	Cham	11	7	1	3	22
4	Bulle	11	6	3	2	21
5	Paradiso	11	6	2	3	20
6	YF Juventus	11	6	1	4	19
7	Grand-Saconnex	11	6	0	5	18
8	Amical Saint-Prex	11	5	1	5	16
9	Basel II	10	5	0	5	15
10	Zürich II	11	4	3	4	15
11	Breitenrain	11	4	3	4	15
12	Brühl	11	4	2	5	14
13	Kreuzlingen	10	3	3	4	12
14	Young Boys II	11	3	2	6	11
15	Lugano II	10	3	0	7	9
16	Bavois	11	2	2	7	8
17	Luzern II	11	2	1	8	7
18	Bellinzona	11	1	2	8	5

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	FC Schaffhausen	11	29	13	+16	25
2	Bulle	11	24	16	+8	21
3	Biel-Bienne	10	23	10	+13	25
4	Paradiso	11	22	11	+11	20
5	Young Boys II	11	21	30	-9	11
6	Zürich II	11	20	20	0	15
7	Cham	11	19	14	+5	22
8	Grand-Saconnex	11	19	15	+4	18
9	Basel II	10	19	19	0	15
10	YF Juventus	11	16	14	+2	19
11	Amical Saint-Prex	11	16	22	-6	16
12	Breitenrain	11	15	17	-2	15
13	Lugano II	10	15	22	-7	9
14	Luzern II	11	15	27	-12	7
15	Kreuzlingen	10	13	13	0	12
16	Brühl	11	13	15	-2	14
17	Bavois	11	10	14	-4	8
18	Bellinzona	11	7	24	-17	5