Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / SV Horn vs Traiskirchen

Prediction Audit: SV Horn vs Traiskirchen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

SV Horn SV Horn
Sep 25, 2026 - 17:30
3 1.42
4 1.18
xG Accuracy: 30%
Traiskirchen Traiskirchen

The model missed the final outcome (Traiskirchen win 3–4).

The model had projected SV Horn at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 SV Horn Traiskirchen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Traiskirchen higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Traiskirchen -7.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
SV Horn 40.9% 38.0% +2.9 pp Aligned
Draw 29.4% 25.3% +4.1 pp Aligned
Traiskirchen 29.7% 36.7% -7.0 pp Market Higher

The closing market estimates Traiskirchen's win probability at 36.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 29.7%, a difference of 7.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Traiskirchen win 3–4.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Traiskirchen. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on SV Horn by 7.0 percentage points (47.9% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · SV Horn 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Traiskirchen 29.6%
    • xG · SV Horn 1.42 — Traiskirchen 1.18
  2. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · SV Horn 2.34 · Draw 3.52 · Traiskirchen 2.42
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Horn 38.0% · Draw 25.3% · Traiskirchen 36.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · SV Horn 2.34 · Draw 3.52 · Traiskirchen 2.42
    • Implied 1X2 · SV Horn 38.0% · Draw 25.3% · Traiskirchen 36.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 25, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Traiskirchen win · 3–4
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 64/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 19, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-9571792

Closing Odds 2.42
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Traiskirchen win · SV Horn 3–4 Traiskirchen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: SV Horn vs Traiskirchen
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-25 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.6%
  • xG (showing): SV Horn 1.42 — Traiskirchen 1.18 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): BTTS No
  • Model: 45.9% · Implied: 33.9% · Probability edge: +12.0 pts · Est. EV: +27.6%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 9 7 0 2 21
2 Wiener SC 9 6 1 2 19
3 Oberwart 9 6 0 3 18
4 Traiskirchen 9 5 2 2 17
5 Wiener Viktoria 9 5 1 3 16
6 Scheiblingkirchen 9 4 3 2 15
7 Parndorf 9 4 2 3 14
8 Fach-Donaufeld 9 4 2 3 14
9 SV Horn 9 3 2 4 11
10 Krems / Rehberg 9 3 2 4 11
11 Leobendorf 9 3 2 4 11
12 Mattersburg SV 2020 9 3 1 5 10
13 Donau 9 2 4 3 10
14 Favoritner AC 9 3 0 6 9
15 Gloggnitz 9 2 2 5 8
16 Wienerberg 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 9 25 9 +16 21
2 Traiskirchen 9 23 19 +4 17
3 Wiener SC 9 21 7 +14 19
4 Oberwart 9 18 12 +6 18
5 Wiener Viktoria 9 15 9 +6 16
6 Parndorf 9 15 13 +2 14
7 Scheiblingkirchen 9 15 16 -1 15
8 Donau 9 15 18 -3 10
9 SV Horn 9 13 12 +1 11
10 Krems / Rehberg 9 13 12 +1 11
11 Fach-Donaufeld 9 11 10 +1 14
12 Mattersburg SV 2020 9 11 13 -2 10
13 Gloggnitz 9 11 19 -8 8
14 Leobendorf 9 10 13 -3 11
15 Favoritner AC 9 6 12 -6 9
16 Wienerberg 9 6 34 -28 0
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions