Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Wiener SC vs Fach-Donaufeld

Prediction Audit: Wiener SC vs Fach-Donaufeld Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wiener SC Wiener SC
Sep 04, 2026 - 17:30
0 1.43
0 1.17
xG Accuracy: 49%
Fach-Donaufeld Fach-Donaufeld

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 0–0).

The model had projected Wiener SC at 41.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (0 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Wiener SC Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 0-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Wiener SC higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Wiener SC -11.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Wiener SC 41.4% 52.4% -11.0 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.4% 22.8% +6.5 pp Model Higher
Fach-Donaufeld 29.2% 24.8% +4.5 pp Aligned

The closing market estimates Wiener SC's win probability at 52.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 41.4%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 0–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Wiener SC than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Wiener SC; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Wiener SC by 11.0 percentage points (52.4% vs model 41.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Wiener SC 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Fach-Donaufeld 29.3%
    • xG · Wiener SC 1.43 — Fach-Donaufeld 1.17
  2. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:02 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Wiener SC 1.70 · Draw 3.90 · Fach-Donaufeld 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Wiener SC 52.4% · Draw 22.8% · Fach-Donaufeld 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  3. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Wiener SC 1.70 · Draw 3.90 · Fach-Donaufeld 3.60
    • Implied 1X2 · Wiener SC 52.4% · Draw 22.8% · Fach-Donaufeld 24.8%
    • Bookmaker · Bet365
  4. Sep 04, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 0–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 44/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 29, 2026 · 02:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-5922202

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Wiener SC 0–0 Fach-Donaufeld
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: Wiener SC vs Fach-Donaufeld
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-04 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 41.4% · Draw 29.4% · Away 29.3%
  • xG (showing): Wiener SC 1.43 — Fach-Donaufeld 1.17 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.1% · No 45.9%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 03, 2026 (UTC)

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Back to Predictions
Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 10 7 1 2 22
2 Oberwart 10 7 0 3 21
3 Wiener SC 10 6 1 3 19
4 Traiskirchen 10 5 2 3 17
5 Wiener Viktoria 9 5 1 3 16
6 Scheiblingkirchen 9 4 3 2 15
7 Krems / Rehberg 10 4 2 4 14
8 Parndorf 9 4 2 3 14
9 Fach-Donaufeld 9 4 2 3 14
10 SV Horn 10 3 2 5 11
11 Leobendorf 9 3 2 4 11
12 Gloggnitz 10 3 2 5 11
13 Mattersburg SV 2020 9 3 1 5 10
14 Donau 9 2 4 3 10
15 Favoritner AC 10 3 1 6 10
16 Wienerberg 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 10 26 10 +16 22
2 Wiener SC 10 24 11 +13 19
3 Traiskirchen 10 23 20 +3 17
4 Oberwart 10 21 13 +8 21
5 Krems / Rehberg 10 17 15 +2 14
6 Wiener Viktoria 9 15 9 +6 16
7 Parndorf 9 15 13 +2 14
8 Scheiblingkirchen 9 15 16 -1 15
9 Donau 9 15 18 -3 10
10 SV Horn 10 14 15 -1 11
11 Gloggnitz 10 12 19 -7 11
12 Fach-Donaufeld 9 11 10 +1 14
13 Mattersburg SV 2020 9 11 13 -2 10
14 Leobendorf 9 10 13 -3 11
15 Favoritner AC 10 7 13 -6 10
16 Wienerberg 9 6 34 -28 0
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions