Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Wienerberg vs Traiskirchen

Prediction Audit: Wienerberg vs Traiskirchen Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wienerberg Wienerberg
Aug 15, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.35
4 1.25
xG Accuracy: 30%
Traiskirchen Traiskirchen

The model missed the final outcome (Traiskirchen win 3–4).

The model had projected Wienerberg at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (7 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Wienerberg Traiskirchen ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 3-4 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 7 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (7 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Wienerberg; match finished Traiskirchen

Market lesson

The full-time result was Traiskirchen win 3–4, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 09, 2026 · 02:39 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Wienerberg 1.35 — Traiskirchen 1.25
  2. Aug 15, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Traiskirchen win · 3–4
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 09, 2026 · 02:39 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3359356

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Traiskirchen win · Wienerberg 3–4 Traiskirchen
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: Wienerberg vs Traiskirchen
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-15 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 37.6% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.9%
  • xG (showing): Wienerberg 1.35 — Traiskirchen 1.25 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 14, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 11 8 1 2 25
2 Oberwart 11 7 1 3 22
3 Wiener SC 11 6 2 3 20
4 Scheiblingkirchen 11 5 4 2 19
5 Traiskirchen 11 5 3 3 18
6 Wiener Viktoria 11 5 2 4 17
7 Krems / Rehberg 11 5 2 4 17
8 Fach-Donaufeld 10 5 2 3 17
9 Parndorf 11 4 3 4 15
10 Mattersburg SV 2020 11 4 1 6 13
11 Favoritner AC 11 4 1 6 13
12 Donau 11 2 6 3 12
13 Gloggnitz 11 3 3 5 12
14 SV Horn 11 3 2 6 11
15 Leobendorf 10 3 2 5 11
16 Wienerberg 11 0 1 10 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 11 30 10 +20 25
2 Wiener SC 11 25 12 +13 20
3 Traiskirchen 11 24 21 +3 18
4 Oberwart 11 22 14 +8 22
5 Scheiblingkirchen 11 19 19 0 19
6 Krems / Rehberg 11 18 15 +3 17
7 Donau 11 17 20 -3 12
8 Parndorf 11 16 15 +1 15
9 Wiener Viktoria 11 15 10 +5 17
10 SV Horn 11 14 16 -2 11
11 Fach-Donaufeld 10 13 10 +3 17
12 Mattersburg SV 2020 11 12 17 -5 13
13 Gloggnitz 11 12 19 -7 12
14 Leobendorf 10 11 15 -4 11
15 Favoritner AC 11 8 13 -5 13
16 Wienerberg 11 6 36 -30 1
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions