Prediction Audit: Fach-Donaufeld vs Oberwart Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Fach-Donaufeld

Aug 14, 2026 - 16:00

1 1.26

4 1.34

xG Accuracy: 45%

Oberwart

AI correctly predicted the Oberwart win.

The match finished 1–4, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Oberwart Oberwart ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-4 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Fach-Donaufeld	33.3%	41.3%	-8.0 pp	Market Higher
Draw	29.6%	24.0%	+5.6 pp	Model Higher
Oberwart	37.1%	34.7%	+2.4 pp	Aligned

The closing market estimates Fach-Donaufeld's win probability at 41.3%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.3%, a difference of 8.0 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Oberwart win 1–4).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Fach-Donaufeld. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Oberwart higher (45.1% vs model 37.1%, 8.0 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Oberwart win 1–4).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 14, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Fach-Donaufeld 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Oberwart 37.0%
- xG · Fach-Donaufeld 1.26 — Oberwart 1.34
Aug 14, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Fach-Donaufeld 2.15 · Draw 3.70 · Oberwart 2.56
- Implied 1X2 · Fach-Donaufeld 41.3% · Draw 24.0% · Oberwart 34.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Fach-Donaufeld 2.15 · Draw 3.70 · Oberwart 2.56
- Implied 1X2 · Fach-Donaufeld 41.3% · Draw 24.0% · Oberwart 34.7%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Oberwart win · 1–4
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor

Historical Decision Monitor

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 21/100

Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:24 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3228347

Closing Odds 2.15

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Oberwart win · Fach-Donaufeld 1–4 Oberwart

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

League: Regionalliga - Ost
Fixture: Fach-Donaufeld vs Oberwart
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 16:00:00
1X2 (model): Home 33.4% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.0%
xG (showing): Fach-Donaufeld 1.26 — Oberwart 1.34 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 02, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	9	7	0	2	21
2	Wiener SC	9	6	1	2	19
3	Oberwart	9	6	0	3	18
4	Traiskirchen	9	5	2	2	17
5	Wiener Viktoria	9	5	1	3	16
6	Scheiblingkirchen	9	4	3	2	15
7	Parndorf	9	4	2	3	14
8	Fach-Donaufeld	9	4	2	3	14
9	SV Horn	9	3	2	4	11
10	Krems / Rehberg	9	3	2	4	11
11	Leobendorf	9	3	2	4	11
12	Mattersburg SV 2020	9	3	1	5	10
13	Donau	9	2	4	3	10
14	Favoritner AC	9	3	0	6	9
15	Gloggnitz	9	2	2	5	8
16	Wienerberg	9	0	0	9	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	9	25	9	+16	21
2	Traiskirchen	9	23	19	+4	17
3	Wiener SC	9	21	7	+14	19
4	Oberwart	9	18	12	+6	18
5	Wiener Viktoria	9	15	9	+6	16
6	Parndorf	9	15	13	+2	14
7	Scheiblingkirchen	9	15	16	-1	15
8	Donau	9	15	18	-3	10
9	SV Horn	9	13	12	+1	11
10	Krems / Rehberg	9	13	12	+1	11
11	Fach-Donaufeld	9	11	10	+1	14
12	Mattersburg SV 2020	9	11	13	-2	10
13	Gloggnitz	9	11	19	-8	8
14	Leobendorf	9	10	13	-3	11
15	Favoritner AC	9	6	12	-6	9
16	Wienerberg	9	6	34	-28	0