Prediction Audit: Wiener SC vs Gloggnitz Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Wiener SC

Aug 14, 2026 - 17:30

4 1.57

1 1.03

xG Accuracy: 51%

Gloggnitz

AI correctly predicted the Wiener SC win.

The match finished 4–1, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

Market Prediction Result Outcome
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
1X2 Wiener SC Wiener SC ✔ Correct
Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 2-0, 0-1 4-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Outcome	Model	Closing Market	Difference	Signal
Wiener SC	48.3%	47.1%	+1.2 pp	Aligned
Draw	28.4%	23.9%	+4.5 pp	Aligned
Gloggnitz	23.3%	29.0%	-5.7 pp	Market Higher

The closing market estimates Gloggnitz's win probability at 29.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 23.3%, a difference of 5.7 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Wiener SC win 4–1).

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Gloggnitz. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
Wiener SC attacking xG significantly stronger (1.57 vs 1.03)
Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Wiener SC higher (53.9% vs model 48.3%, 5.7 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Wiener SC win 4–1).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

Aug 14, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wiener SC 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Gloggnitz 23.3%
- xG · Wiener SC 1.57 — Gloggnitz 1.03
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wiener SC 1.88 · Draw 3.71 · Gloggnitz 3.06
- Implied 1X2 · Wiener SC 47.1% · Draw 23.9% · Gloggnitz 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wiener SC 1.88 · Draw 3.71 · Gloggnitz 3.06
- Implied 1X2 · Wiener SC 47.1% · Draw 23.9% · Gloggnitz 29.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
Aug 14, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
FT Full-time result Wiener SC win · 4–1
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe

Historical Decision No Primary Bet

Outcome Validated

Pre-match metrics (historical context)

Prediction Reliability 76/100 · High

Validation: Pass

Evidence ★★★★★

No strong statistical edge
Direction agrees with model lean
Validation passed

Market Compatibility 71/100

Betting Confidence 79/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 08, 2026 · 01:58 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-3233177

Closing Odds 3.06

AI Fair Odds —

CLV Pending

Final Result Wiener SC win · Wiener SC 4–1 Gloggnitz

Prediction ✔ Correct

Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?: This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?: xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?: Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?: Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

League: Regionalliga - Ost
Fixture: Wiener SC vs Gloggnitz
Kickoff: 2026-08-14 17:30:00
1X2 (model): Home 48.3% · Draw 28.4% · Away 23.3%
xG (showing): Wiener SC 1.57 — Gloggnitz 1.03 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
BTTS (model): Yes 52.5% · No 47.5%
Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.0%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 27, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost — Standings

#	TEAM	MP	W	D	L	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	9	7	0	2	21
2	Wiener SC	9	6	1	2	19
3	Oberwart	9	6	0	3	18
4	Traiskirchen	9	5	2	2	17
5	Wiener Viktoria	9	5	1	3	16
6	Scheiblingkirchen	9	4	3	2	15
7	Parndorf	9	4	2	3	14
8	Fach-Donaufeld	9	4	2	3	14
9	SV Horn	9	3	2	4	11
10	Krems / Rehberg	9	3	2	4	11
11	Leobendorf	9	3	2	4	11
12	Mattersburg SV 2020	9	3	1	5	10
13	Donau	9	2	4	3	10
14	Favoritner AC	9	3	0	6	9
15	Gloggnitz	9	2	2	5	8
16	Wienerberg	9	0	0	9	0

#	TEAM	MP	GS	GC	+/-	PTS
1	Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf	9	25	9	+16	21
2	Traiskirchen	9	23	19	+4	17
3	Wiener SC	9	21	7	+14	19
4	Oberwart	9	18	12	+6	18
5	Wiener Viktoria	9	15	9	+6	16
6	Parndorf	9	15	13	+2	14
7	Scheiblingkirchen	9	15	16	-1	15
8	Donau	9	15	18	-3	10
9	SV Horn	9	13	12	+1	11
10	Krems / Rehberg	9	13	12	+1	11
11	Fach-Donaufeld	9	11	10	+1	14
12	Mattersburg SV 2020	9	11	13	-2	10
13	Gloggnitz	9	11	19	-8	8
14	Leobendorf	9	10	13	-3	11
15	Favoritner AC	9	6	12	-6	9
16	Wienerberg	9	6	34	-28	0