Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - Ost / Gloggnitz vs Krems / Rehberg

Prediction Audit: Gloggnitz vs Krems / Rehberg Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Gloggnitz Gloggnitz
Aug 07, 2026 - 17:00
3 1.16
1 1.44
xG Accuracy: 53%
Krems / Rehberg Krems / Rehberg

The model missed the final outcome (Gloggnitz win 3–1).

The model had projected Krems / Rehberg at 41.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Krems / Rehberg Gloggnitz ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-2, 1-0, 0-2 3-1 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Gloggnitz higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Gloggnitz -14.1 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Gloggnitz 28.8% 42.9% -14.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.3% 25.8% +3.5 pp Aligned
Krems / Rehberg 41.9% 31.4% +10.5 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Gloggnitz's win probability at 42.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 28.8%, a difference of 14.1 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Gloggnitz win 3–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Gloggnitz than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Krems / Rehberg; match finished Gloggnitz

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Krems / Rehberg by 14.1 percentage points (56.0% vs model 41.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 07, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Gloggnitz 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Krems / Rehberg 41.9%
    • xG · Gloggnitz 1.16 — Krems / Rehberg 1.44
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 16:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Gloggnitz 2.07 · Draw 3.44 · Krems / Rehberg 2.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Gloggnitz 42.9% · Draw 25.8% · Krems / Rehberg 31.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Aug 07, 2026 · 17:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Gloggnitz 2.07 · Draw 3.44 · Krems / Rehberg 2.83
    • Implied 1X2 · Gloggnitz 42.9% · Draw 25.8% · Krems / Rehberg 31.4%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Aug 07, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Gloggnitz win · 3–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (14 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 10/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:01 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2675807

Closing Odds 2.07
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Gloggnitz win · Gloggnitz 3–1 Krems / Rehberg
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Regionalliga - Ost
  • Fixture: Gloggnitz vs Krems / Rehberg
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 28.8% · Draw 29.3% · Away 41.9%
  • xG (showing): Gloggnitz 1.16 — Krems / Rehberg 1.44 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.0% · No 46.0%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.4%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - Ost Regionalliga - Ost — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 9 7 0 2 21
2 Wiener SC 9 6 1 2 19
3 Oberwart 9 6 0 3 18
4 Traiskirchen 9 5 2 2 17
5 Wiener Viktoria 9 5 1 3 16
6 Scheiblingkirchen 9 4 3 2 15
7 Parndorf 9 4 2 3 14
8 Fach-Donaufeld 9 4 2 3 14
9 SV Horn 9 3 2 4 11
10 Krems / Rehberg 9 3 2 4 11
11 Leobendorf 9 3 2 4 11
12 Mattersburg SV 2020 9 3 1 5 10
13 Donau 9 2 4 3 10
14 Favoritner AC 9 3 0 6 9
15 Gloggnitz 9 2 2 5 8
16 Wienerberg 9 0 0 9 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf 9 25 9 +16 21
2 Traiskirchen 9 23 19 +4 17
3 Wiener SC 9 21 7 +14 19
4 Oberwart 9 18 12 +6 18
5 Wiener Viktoria 9 15 9 +6 16
6 Parndorf 9 15 13 +2 14
7 Scheiblingkirchen 9 15 16 -1 15
8 Donau 9 15 18 -3 10
9 SV Horn 9 13 12 +1 11
10 Krems / Rehberg 9 13 12 +1 11
11 Fach-Donaufeld 9 11 10 +1 14
12 Mattersburg SV 2020 9 11 13 -2 10
13 Gloggnitz 9 11 19 -8 8
14 Leobendorf 9 10 13 -3 11
15 Favoritner AC 9 6 12 -6 9
16 Wienerberg 9 6 34 -28 0
Regionalliga - Ost Austria. Regionalliga - Ost Predictions