The model missed the final outcome (Kufstein win 1–3).
The model had projected SK St. Johann at 40.9%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 SK St. Johann Kufstein ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 1-3 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SK St. Johann | 40.9% | 52.5% | -11.6 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.4% | 21.2% | +8.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Kufstein | 29.7% | 26.2% | +3.4 pp | Aligned |
The closing market estimates SK St. Johann's win probability at 52.5%, compared with the model's estimate of 40.9%, a difference of 11.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Kufstein win 1–3.
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about SK St. Johann than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned SK St. Johann; match finished Kufstein
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on SK St. Johann by 11.6 percentage points (52.5% vs model 40.9%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · SK St. Johann 41.0% · Draw 29.4% · Kufstein 29.6%
- xG · SK St. Johann 1.42 — Kufstein 1.18
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · SK St. Johann 1.70 · Draw 4.20 · Kufstein 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · SK St. Johann 52.5% · Draw 21.2% · Kufstein 26.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · SK St. Johann 1.70 · Draw 4.20 · Kufstein 3.40
- Implied 1X2 · SK St. Johann 52.5% · Draw 21.2% · Kufstein 26.2%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Aug 01, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Kufstein win · 1–3
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (12 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Regionalliga - West — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hohenems | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Dornbirn | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Imst | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Schwaz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | SK St. Johann | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Swarovski Tirol II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Fügen | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Röthis | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Kufstein | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Lochau | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | Lauterach | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Rheindorf Altach II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | Lustenau | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornbirn | 9 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 20 |
| 2 | Hohenems | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 21 |
| 3 | Kitzbühel | 9 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Schwaz | 9 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 | Swarovski Tirol II | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 |
| 6 | Fügen | 9 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Imst | 9 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 19 |
| 8 | Lauterach | 9 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Rheindorf Altach II | 9 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 6 |
| 10 | SK St. Johann | 9 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 11 | Röthis | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Lochau | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 7 |
| 13 | Wolfurt | 9 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 4 |
| 14 | Kufstein | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | SVG Reichenau | 9 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Lustenau | 9 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 6 |
