The model missed the final outcome (Lauterach win 3–0).
The model had projected SVG Reichenau at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS No No ✔ Correct
- 1X2 SVG Reichenau Lauterach ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lauterach | 32.4% | 33.6% | -1.2 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 24.6% | +4.9 pp | Aligned |
| SVG Reichenau | 38.0% | 41.8% | -3.8 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Lauterach win 3–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (No) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (3 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned SVG Reichenau; match finished Lauterach
Market lesson
The full-time result was Lauterach win 3–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Lauterach 32.4% · Draw 29.6% · SVG Reichenau 38.0%
- xG · Lauterach 1.24 — SVG Reichenau 1.36
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 13:39 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Lauterach 2.65 · Draw 3.61 · SVG Reichenau 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Lauterach 33.6% · Draw 24.6% · SVG Reichenau 41.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:01 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Lauterach 2.65 · Draw 3.61 · SVG Reichenau 2.13
- Implied 1X2 · Lauterach 33.6% · Draw 24.6% · SVG Reichenau 41.8%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 26, 2026 · 14:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Lauterach win · 3–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Lauterach & SVG Reichenau!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Regionalliga - West — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hohenems | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Dornbirn | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 |
| 3 | Imst | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 4 | Schwaz | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Kitzbühel | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 18 |
| 6 | SK St. Johann | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Swarovski Tirol II | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Fügen | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 9 | Röthis | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Kufstein | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Lochau | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 13 | Lauterach | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 14 | Rheindorf Altach II | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 15 | Lustenau | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 |
| 16 | Wolfurt | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornbirn | 9 | 23 | 8 | +15 | 20 |
| 2 | Hohenems | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 21 |
| 3 | Kitzbühel | 9 | 21 | 12 | +9 | 18 |
| 4 | Schwaz | 9 | 21 | 15 | +6 | 19 |
| 5 | Swarovski Tirol II | 8 | 19 | 10 | +9 | 13 |
| 6 | Fügen | 9 | 19 | 21 | -2 | 13 |
| 7 | Imst | 9 | 15 | 6 | +9 | 19 |
| 8 | Lauterach | 9 | 14 | 18 | -4 | 6 |
| 9 | Rheindorf Altach II | 9 | 14 | 23 | -9 | 6 |
| 10 | SK St. Johann | 9 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 15 |
| 11 | Röthis | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 12 | Lochau | 9 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 7 |
| 13 | Wolfurt | 9 | 12 | 26 | -14 | 4 |
| 14 | Kufstein | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | SVG Reichenau | 9 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Lustenau | 9 | 8 | 22 | -14 | 6 |
