Predictions / Football / Austria. Regionalliga - West / Kufstein vs Lochau

Prediction Audit: Kufstein vs Lochau Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Kufstein Kufstein
Aug 07, 2026 - 17:30
1 1.22
1 1.38
xG Accuracy: 85%
Lochau Lochau

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Lochau at 39.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Lochau Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-1 ✔ Correct

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Lochau; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The full-time result was Draw 1–1, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 01, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Kufstein 1.22 — Lochau 1.38
  2. Aug 07, 2026 · 17:30 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  4. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 01, 2026 · 02:19 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-2678687

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Kufstein 1–1 Lochau
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Regionalliga - West
  • Fixture: Kufstein vs Lochau
  • Kickoff: 2026-08-07 17:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 31.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 39.0%
  • xG (showing): Kufstein 1.22 — Lochau 1.38 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

Most likely correct score stays a low-probability tail: use it for context, not as a must-bet story.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 15, 2026 (UTC)

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Regionalliga - West Regionalliga - West — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Hohenems 11 9 0 2 27
2 Imst 11 8 1 2 25
3 Schwaz 11 8 1 2 25
4 Dornbirn 11 7 2 2 23
5 Kitzbühel 11 7 0 4 21
6 Swarovski Tirol II 11 6 1 4 19
7 SK St. Johann 10 5 3 2 18
8 Röthis 10 4 3 3 15
9 Fügen 11 4 1 6 13
10 SVG Reichenau 11 3 3 5 12
11 Lochau 11 3 2 6 11
12 Kufstein 11 2 4 5 10
13 Lauterach 11 2 3 6 9
14 Lustenau 11 1 4 6 7
15 Rheindorf Altach II 11 1 3 7 6
16 Wolfurt 11 1 1 9 4
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Swarovski Tirol II 11 32 18 +14 19
2 Hohenems 11 28 11 +17 27
3 Schwaz 11 27 19 +8 25
4 Dornbirn 11 25 11 +14 23
5 Imst 11 24 9 +15 25
6 Kitzbühel 11 24 15 +9 21
7 Fügen 11 21 28 -7 13
8 Röthis 10 19 18 +1 15
9 Lauterach 11 19 26 -7 9
10 SK St. Johann 10 18 11 +7 18
11 Kufstein 11 16 17 -1 10
12 Lochau 11 15 27 -12 11
13 Rheindorf Altach II 11 15 29 -14 6
14 Wolfurt 11 14 33 -19 4
15 SVG Reichenau 11 13 19 -6 12
16 Lustenau 11 11 30 -19 7
Regionalliga - West Austria. Regionalliga - West Predictions