The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).
The model had projected Wolfurt at 43.4%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Wolfurt Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 2-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wolfurt | 43.4% | 44.9% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.1% | 23.5% | +5.6 pp | Model Higher |
| Rheindorf Altach II | 27.5% | 31.5% | -4.0 pp | Aligned |
The statistical model estimates Draw's win probability at 29.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 23.5%, a difference of 5.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Draw.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (4 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Wolfurt; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Wolfurt by 5.6 percentage points (37.8% vs model 43.4%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Wolfurt 43.3% · Draw 29.2% · Rheindorf Altach II 27.5%
- xG · Wolfurt 1.47 — Rheindorf Altach II 1.13
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 14:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Wolfurt 2.00 · Draw 3.82 · Rheindorf Altach II 2.85
- Implied 1X2 · Wolfurt 44.9% · Draw 23.5% · Rheindorf Altach II 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:02 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Wolfurt 2.00 · Draw 3.82 · Rheindorf Altach II 2.85
- Implied 1X2 · Wolfurt 44.9% · Draw 23.5% · Rheindorf Altach II 31.5%
- Bookmaker · Marathonbet
-
Aug 02, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Regionalliga - West — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hohenems | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 |
| 2 | Dornbirn | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 3 | Imst | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Kitzbühel | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | SK St. Johann | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 14 |
| 6 | Schwaz | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 7 | Röthis | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Swarovski Tirol II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Fügen | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | SVG Reichenau | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9 |
| 11 | Kufstein | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 |
| 12 | Lochau | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 13 | Rheindorf Altach II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 14 | Lustenau | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
| 15 | Wolfurt | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 |
| 16 | Lauterach | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 3 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornbirn | 8 | 23 | 5 | +18 | 20 |
| 2 | Hohenems | 8 | 22 | 7 | +15 | 21 |
| 3 | Kitzbühel | 8 | 17 | 12 | +5 | 15 |
| 4 | Schwaz | 7 | 14 | 13 | +1 | 13 |
| 5 | Swarovski Tirol II | 7 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 10 |
| 6 | Röthis | 8 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Fügen | 7 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 10 |
| 8 | Imst | 8 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 16 |
| 9 | SK St. Johann | 8 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 14 |
| 10 | Rheindorf Altach II | 7 | 12 | 15 | -3 | 6 |
| 11 | Lochau | 8 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 7 |
| 12 | Lauterach | 8 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Wolfurt | 8 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 4 |
| 14 | Kufstein | 8 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | SVG Reichenau | 8 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 9 |
| 16 | Lustenau | 8 | 7 | 21 | -14 | 5 |
