The model missed the final outcome (Espanyol W win 1–0).
The model had projected Deportivo Alavés at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Deportivo Alavés Espanyol W ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Espanyol W | 32.9% | 35.6% | -2.8 pp | Aligned |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.3% | -0.7 pp | Aligned |
| Deportivo Alavés | 37.5% | 34.0% | +3.5 pp | Aligned |
The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Espanyol W win 1–0.
Market Assessment
The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.
- Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
The full-time result was Espanyol W win 1–0, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Espanyol W 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Deportivo Alavés 37.6%
- xG · Espanyol W 1.25 — Deportivo Alavés 1.35
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Espanyol W 2.57 · Draw 3.02 · Deportivo Alavés 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Espanyol W 35.6% · Draw 30.3% · Deportivo Alavés 34.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 09:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Espanyol W 2.57 · Draw 3.02 · Deportivo Alavés 2.69
- Implied 1X2 · Espanyol W 35.6% · Draw 30.3% · Deportivo Alavés 34.0%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Oct 03, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Espanyol W win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División Femenina — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Athletic Club W | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 5 | Eibar W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Atletico Madrid W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 7 | FC Levante Badalona | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 8 | Espanyol W | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 9 | Sevilla W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Granada | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Deportivo Alavés | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 14 | Granad. Tenerife W | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 |
| 15 | Real Sociedad W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 5 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Athletic Club W | 6 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 11 |
| 4 | Madrid CFF W | 6 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 13 |
| 5 | Atletico Madrid W | 6 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 9 |
| 6 | Espanyol W | 6 | 9 | 6 | +3 | 8 |
| 7 | FC Levante Badalona | 6 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 8 |
| 8 | Sevilla W | 6 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 7 |
| 9 | Real Sociedad W | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 10 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 6 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 5 |
| 11 | Granada | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 | Eibar W | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 13 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | Granad. Tenerife W | 5 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | Valencia W | 5 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 0 |
| 16 | Deportivo Alavés | 6 | 3 | 9 | -6 | 6 |
