The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Deportivo de La Coruña W at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Deportivo de La Coruña W Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo de La Coruña W | 36.1% | 44.2% | -8.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 29.8% | -0.2 pp | Aligned |
| Espanyol W | 34.2% | 25.9% | +8.3 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Espanyol W's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.9%, a difference of 8.3 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Espanyol W.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Deportivo de La Coruña W; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Deportivo de La Coruña W by 8.3 percentage points (27.8% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:01 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Espanyol W 34.2%
- xG · Deportivo de La Coruña W 1.32 — Espanyol W 1.28
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo de La Coruña W 2.07 · Draw 3.07 · Espanyol W 3.53
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 44.2% · Draw 29.8% · Espanyol W 25.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo de La Coruña W 2.07 · Draw 3.07 · Espanyol W 3.53
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo de La Coruña W 44.2% · Draw 29.8% · Espanyol W 25.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División Femenina — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Athletic Club W | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Sevilla W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Granada | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Espanyol W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Granad. Tenerife W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 5 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Espanyol W | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Athletic Club W | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid W | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad W | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 9 | Granada | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Sevilla W | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Eibar W | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Valencia W | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 |
| 16 | Granad. Tenerife W | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 |
