AI correctly predicted the Real Madrid W win.
The match finished 3–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Real Madrid W Real Madrid W ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 2-1, 0-1, 2-0 3-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real Madrid W | 42.9% | 60.1% | -17.3 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.2% | 22.0% | +7.2 pp | Model Higher |
| Atletico Madrid W | 27.9% | 17.9% | +10.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Real Madrid W's win probability at 60.1%, compared with the model's estimate of 42.9%, a difference of 17.3 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Real Madrid W win 3–2).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Real Madrid W than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Real Madrid W higher (60.2% vs model 42.9%, 17.3 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Real Madrid W win 3–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 18:56 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Real Madrid W 42.9% · Draw 29.2% · Atletico Madrid W 27.9%
- xG · Real Madrid W 1.46 — Atletico Madrid W 1.14
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 18:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Real Madrid W 1.52 · Draw 4.15 · Atletico Madrid W 5.12
- Implied 1X2 · Real Madrid W 60.1% · Draw 22.0% · Atletico Madrid W 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 18:56 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Real Madrid W 1.52 · Draw 4.15 · Atletico Madrid W 5.12
- Implied 1X2 · Real Madrid W 60.1% · Draw 22.0% · Atletico Madrid W 17.9%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Aug 30, 2026 · 19:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Real Madrid W win · 3–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Primera División Femenina — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 12 |
| 4 | Athletic Club W | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar W | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Sevilla W | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 10 | Granada | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 11 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| 12 | Espanyol W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 13 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 15 | Granad. Tenerife W | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| 16 | Valencia W | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona W | 5 | 21 | 2 | +19 | 15 |
| 2 | Real Madrid W | 5 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 13 |
| 3 | Madrid CFF W | 5 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 12 |
| 4 | Espanyol W | 4 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 4 |
| 5 | Athletic Club W | 4 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 7 |
| 6 | FC Levante Badalona | 5 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 7 |
| 7 | Atletico Madrid W | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 6 |
| 8 | Real Sociedad W | 5 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 2 |
| 9 | Granada | 5 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 6 |
| 10 | Edf Logrono W | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 6 |
| 11 | Sevilla W | 4 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 6 |
| 12 | Deportivo de La Coruña W | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Eibar W | 4 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 14 | Deportivo Alavés | 5 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 6 |
| 15 | Valencia W | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 0 |
| 16 | Granad. Tenerife W | 4 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 2 |
