Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Salamanca UDS vs RSD Alcalá

Prediction Audit: Salamanca UDS vs RSD Alcalá Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Salamanca UDS Salamanca UDS
Sep 27, 2026 - 15:00
3 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 43%
RSD Alcalá RSD Alcalá

The model missed the final outcome (Salamanca UDS win 3–0).

The model had projected RSD Alcalá at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 RSD Alcalá Salamanca UDS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 3-0 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The closing market prices Salamanca UDS higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Salamanca UDS -9.2 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Salamanca UDS 33.8% 43.0% -9.2 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.4% +0.3 pp Aligned
RSD Alcalá 36.6% 27.7% +8.9 pp Model Higher

The closing market estimates Salamanca UDS's win probability at 43.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 9.2 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Salamanca UDS win 3–0.

Market Assessment

The market and model broadly agree on Salamanca UDS. The remaining divergence may reflect differences in team-strength assumptions rather than a directional disagreement.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned RSD Alcalá; match finished Salamanca UDS

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on RSD Alcalá by 9.2 percentage points (45.8% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Salamanca UDS 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · RSD Alcalá 36.6%
    • xG · Salamanca UDS 1.27 — RSD Alcalá 1.33
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Salamanca UDS 2.13 · Draw 3.12 · RSD Alcalá 3.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Salamanca UDS 43.0% · Draw 29.4% · RSD Alcalá 27.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Salamanca UDS 2.13 · Draw 3.12 · RSD Alcalá 3.31
    • Implied 1X2 · Salamanca UDS 43.0% · Draw 29.4% · RSD Alcalá 27.7%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Salamanca UDS win · 3–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 74/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 18/100
Monitoring Confidence 33/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10100669

Closing Odds 2.13
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Salamanca UDS win · Salamanca UDS 3–0 RSD Alcalá
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Salamanca UDS vs RSD Alcalá
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Salamanca UDS 1.27 — RSD Alcalá 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

Related Predictions

See Upcoming Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Matches Track Salamanca UDS Next Match Prediction Track RSD Alcalá Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

Get Premium Predictions for Salamanca UDS & RSD Alcalá!

Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.

Subscribe Now
Back to Predictions
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Numancia 3 2 1 0 7
2 Conquense 3 2 1 0 7
3 SS Reyes 4 2 1 1 7
4 RSD Alcalá 3 2 0 1 6
5 Real Valladolid II 3 2 0 1 6
6 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 2 0 2 6
7 Salamanca UDS 3 2 0 1 6
8 A Madrid III 3 2 0 1 6
9 Navalcarnero 3 1 1 1 4
10 Albacete II 3 1 1 1 4
11 Guadalajara 2 1 0 1 3
12 Real Ávila 3 1 0 2 3
13 Real Madrid III 2 0 2 0 2
14 Getafe II 3 0 2 1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 0 2 1 2
16 Atlético Tordesillas 3 0 1 2 1
17 Atlético Paso 3 0 1 2 1
18 Calvo Sotelo 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 RSD Alcalá 3 9 4 +5 6
2 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 8 7 +1 6
3 Real Valladolid II 3 7 2 +5 6
4 Atlético Tordesillas 3 6 9 -3 1
5 Conquense 3 5 3 +2 7
6 Albacete II 3 5 9 -4 4
7 Numancia 3 4 0 +4 7
8 SS Reyes 4 4 3 +1 7
9 Salamanca UDS 3 4 3 +1 6
10 Navalcarnero 3 4 4 0 4
11 Guadalajara 2 4 4 0 3
12 Real Ávila 3 4 5 -1 3
13 A Madrid III 3 3 3 0 6
14 Getafe II 3 3 4 -1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 1 4 -3 2
16 Calvo Sotelo 3 1 5 -4 1
17 Real Madrid III 2 0 0 0 2
18 Atlético Paso 3 0 3 -3 1
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions