Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Real Ávila vs Getafe II

Prediction Audit: Real Ávila vs Getafe II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Real Ávila Real Ávila
Sep 27, 2026 - 15:00
1 1.25
0 1.35
xG Accuracy: 64%
Getafe II Getafe II

The model missed the final outcome (Real Ávila win 1–0).

The model had projected Getafe II at 37.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Getafe II Real Ávila ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Getafe II considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Getafe II +11.0 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Real Ávila 32.9% 43.5% -10.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 30.0% -0.4 pp Aligned
Getafe II 37.5% 26.6% +11.0 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Getafe II's win probability at 37.5%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.6%, a difference of 11.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Real Ávila win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Getafe II.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Getafe II by 11.0 percentage points (26.5% vs model 37.5%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Real Ávila 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Getafe II 37.6%
    • xG · Real Ávila 1.25 — Getafe II 1.35
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 14:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Real Ávila 2.11 · Draw 3.06 · Getafe II 3.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Ávila 43.5% · Draw 30.0% · Getafe II 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Real Ávila 2.11 · Draw 3.06 · Getafe II 3.45
    • Implied 1X2 · Real Ávila 43.5% · Draw 30.0% · Getafe II 26.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Real Ávila win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 58/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (11 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 15/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 01:53 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10100591

Closing Odds 3.45
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Real Ávila win · Real Ávila 1–0 Getafe II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Real Ávila vs Getafe II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 15:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Real Ávila 1.25 — Getafe II 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 43.6% · Probability edge: +4.6 pts · Est. EV: +6.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Numancia 3 2 1 0 7
2 Conquense 3 2 1 0 7
3 SS Reyes 4 2 1 1 7
4 RSD Alcalá 3 2 0 1 6
5 Real Valladolid II 3 2 0 1 6
6 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 2 0 2 6
7 Salamanca UDS 3 2 0 1 6
8 A Madrid III 3 2 0 1 6
9 Navalcarnero 3 1 1 1 4
10 Albacete II 3 1 1 1 4
11 Guadalajara 2 1 0 1 3
12 Real Ávila 3 1 0 2 3
13 Real Madrid III 2 0 2 0 2
14 Getafe II 3 0 2 1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 0 2 1 2
16 Atlético Tordesillas 3 0 1 2 1
17 Atlético Paso 3 0 1 2 1
18 Calvo Sotelo 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 RSD Alcalá 3 9 4 +5 6
2 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 8 7 +1 6
3 Real Valladolid II 3 7 2 +5 6
4 Atlético Tordesillas 3 6 9 -3 1
5 Conquense 3 5 3 +2 7
6 Albacete II 3 5 9 -4 4
7 Numancia 3 4 0 +4 7
8 SS Reyes 4 4 3 +1 7
9 Salamanca UDS 3 4 3 +1 6
10 Navalcarnero 3 4 4 0 4
11 Guadalajara 2 4 4 0 3
12 Real Ávila 3 4 5 -1 3
13 A Madrid III 3 3 3 0 6
14 Getafe II 3 3 4 -1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 1 4 -3 2
16 Calvo Sotelo 3 1 5 -4 1
17 Real Madrid III 2 0 0 0 2
18 Atlético Paso 3 0 3 -3 1
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions