Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Guadalajara vs Salamanca UDS

Prediction Audit: Guadalajara vs Salamanca UDS Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Guadalajara Guadalajara
Sep 06, 2026 - 17:00
2 1.39
3 1.21
xG Accuracy: 52%
Salamanca UDS Salamanca UDS

The model missed the final outcome (Salamanca UDS win 2–3).

The model had projected Guadalajara at 39.5%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Over 2.5 (5 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS No Yes ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Guadalajara Salamanca UDS ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-3 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Broadly Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned.

Largest probability gap: Guadalajara +1.3 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Guadalajara 39.5% 38.2% +1.3 pp Aligned
Draw 29.5% 30.2% -0.7 pp Aligned
Salamanca UDS 31.0% 31.6% -0.6 pp Aligned

The model and closing market are broadly aligned, with probability differences below 5 percentage points.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Salamanca UDS win 2–3.

Market Assessment

The market and model are broadly aligned. Any small pricing gap likely reflects rounding or bookmaker margin, not a structural disagreement.

  • Current pricing remains close to the model baseline.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 5 goals materialised

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS No; match finished BTTS Yes
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Under 2.5; match finished Over 2.5 (5 goals)

Market lesson

The full-time result was Salamanca UDS win 2–3, which did not match the model's pre-match lean on 1X2.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Guadalajara 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Salamanca UDS 31.0%
    • xG · Guadalajara 1.39 — Salamanca UDS 1.21
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Guadalajara 2.40 · Draw 3.03 · Salamanca UDS 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara 38.2% · Draw 30.2% · Salamanca UDS 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Guadalajara 2.40 · Draw 3.03 · Salamanca UDS 2.90
    • Implied 1X2 · Guadalajara 38.2% · Draw 30.2% · Salamanca UDS 31.6%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Salamanca UDS win · 2–3
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 78/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Market Compatibility 93/100
Betting Confidence 81/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:05 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6370163

Closing Odds 2.4
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Salamanca UDS win · Guadalajara 2–3 Salamanca UDS
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Guadalajara vs Salamanca UDS
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 39.5% · Draw 29.5% · Away 31.0%
  • xG (showing): Guadalajara 1.39 — Salamanca UDS 1.21 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV on tracked lines at current best prices (same as the decision block: no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS No
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.3% · No 45.7%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Numancia 3 2 1 0 7
2 Conquense 3 2 1 0 7
3 SS Reyes 4 2 1 1 7
4 RSD Alcalá 3 2 0 1 6
5 Real Valladolid II 3 2 0 1 6
6 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 2 0 2 6
7 Salamanca UDS 3 2 0 1 6
8 A Madrid III 3 2 0 1 6
9 Navalcarnero 3 1 1 1 4
10 Albacete II 3 1 1 1 4
11 Guadalajara 2 1 0 1 3
12 Real Ávila 3 1 0 2 3
13 Real Madrid III 2 0 2 0 2
14 Getafe II 3 0 2 1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 0 2 1 2
16 Atlético Tordesillas 3 0 1 2 1
17 Atlético Paso 3 0 1 2 1
18 Calvo Sotelo 3 0 1 2 1
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 RSD Alcalá 3 9 4 +5 6
2 Gimnástica Segoviana 4 8 7 +1 6
3 Real Valladolid II 3 7 2 +5 6
4 Atlético Tordesillas 3 6 9 -3 1
5 Conquense 3 5 3 +2 7
6 Albacete II 3 5 9 -4 4
7 Numancia 3 4 0 +4 7
8 SS Reyes 4 4 3 +1 7
9 Salamanca UDS 3 4 3 +1 6
10 Navalcarnero 3 4 4 0 4
11 Guadalajara 2 4 4 0 3
12 Real Ávila 3 4 5 -1 3
13 A Madrid III 3 3 3 0 6
14 Getafe II 3 3 4 -1 2
15 CF Talavera 3 1 4 -3 2
16 Calvo Sotelo 3 1 5 -4 1
17 Real Madrid III 2 0 0 0 2
18 Atlético Paso 3 0 3 -3 1
Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Predictions