Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 / Atlético Paso vs Numancia

Prediction Audit: Atlético Paso vs Numancia Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Atlético Paso Atlético Paso
Sep 06, 2026 - 10:00
0 1.25
2 1.35
xG Accuracy: 59%
Numancia Numancia

AI correctly predicted the Numancia win.

The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade B-

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Numancia Numancia ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The model's directional lean matched the full-time result (Numancia win 0–2).

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Aug 31, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Forecast generated
    • xG · Atlético Paso 1.25 — Numancia 1.35
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  3. FT Full-time result Numancia win · 0–2
  4. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  5. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Pending
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation pending
Market Compatibility 100/100
Betting Confidence 59/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 01:10 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6323213

Closing Odds Pending
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Numancia win · Atlético Paso 0–2 Numancia
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade B-

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 5
  • Fixture: Atlético Paso vs Numancia
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 32.9% · Draw 29.6% · Away 37.6%
  • xG (showing): Atlético Paso 1.25 — Numancia 1.35 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None — no positive EV could be estimated on tracked lines at current best prices (missing odds or thin book depth).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Saying “no value” on a snapshot is a feature, not a bug: it protects readers from forcing a play when the edge is not there.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

October 11, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 Segunda División RFEF - Group 5 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Salamanca UDS 6 4 0 2 12
2 A Madrid III 5 4 0 1 12
3 Numancia 5 3 2 0 11
4 Conquense 5 3 1 1 10
5 SS Reyes 6 3 1 2 10
6 Real Valladolid II 5 3 0 2 9
7 CF Talavera 5 2 2 1 8
8 Gimnástica Segoviana 5 2 1 2 7
9 Navalcarnero 5 2 1 2 7
10 RSD Alcalá 5 2 0 3 6
11 Real Ávila 5 2 0 3 6
12 Guadalajara 5 1 2 2 5
13 Atlético Paso 5 1 2 2 5
14 Albacete II 5 1 2 2 5
15 Atlético Tordesillas 5 1 1 3 4
16 Calvo Sotelo 5 1 1 3 4
17 Getafe II 5 0 3 2 3
18 Real Madrid III 5 0 3 2 3
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Valladolid II 5 11 4 +7 9
2 Gimnástica Segoviana 5 11 10 +1 7
3 Salamanca UDS 6 10 7 +3 12
4 Conquense 5 10 7 +3 10
5 RSD Alcalá 5 10 10 0 6
6 SS Reyes 6 9 6 +3 10
7 A Madrid III 5 8 5 +3 12
8 Navalcarnero 5 8 8 0 7
9 Guadalajara 5 8 9 -1 5
10 Atlético Tordesillas 5 8 10 -2 4
11 CF Talavera 5 7 5 +2 8
12 Albacete II 5 7 15 -8 5
13 Numancia 5 5 0 +5 11
14 Real Ávila 5 5 8 -3 6
15 Atlético Paso 5 3 5 -2 5
16 Getafe II 5 3 5 -2 3
17 Calvo Sotelo 5 2 8 -6 4
18 Real Madrid III 5 1 4 -3 3