Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Mijas Las Lagunas vs Tamaraceite

Prediction Audit: Mijas Las Lagunas vs Tamaraceite Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Mijas Las Lagunas Mijas Las Lagunas
Sep 27, 2026 - 10:00
6 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 23%
Tamaraceite Tamaraceite

AI correctly predicted the Mijas Las Lagunas win.

The match finished 6–2, validating the model's directional assessment.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade A

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (8 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Mijas Las Lagunas Mijas Las Lagunas ✔ Correct
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 6-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Mijas Las Lagunas higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Mijas Las Lagunas -12.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Mijas Las Lagunas 36.1% 49.0% -12.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.7% +0.9 pp Aligned
Tamaraceite 34.2% 22.3% +11.9 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Mijas Las Lagunas's win probability at 49.0%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Mijas Las Lagunas win 6–2).

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Mijas Las Lagunas than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 8 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Mijas Las Lagunas higher (49.0% vs model 36.1%, 12.9 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Mijas Las Lagunas win 6–2).

Premium betting site stake: New users can use the promo code FHn2uDc1 to receive $100 cash.

Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Mijas Las Lagunas 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Tamaraceite 34.2%
    • xG · Mijas Las Lagunas 1.32 — Tamaraceite 1.28
  2. Sep 27, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Mijas Las Lagunas 1.87 · Draw 3.19 · Tamaraceite 4.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Mijas Las Lagunas 49.0% · Draw 28.7% · Tamaraceite 22.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Mijas Las Lagunas 1.87 · Draw 3.19 · Tamaraceite 4.11
    • Implied 1X2 · Mijas Las Lagunas 49.0% · Draw 28.7% · Tamaraceite 22.3%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 27, 2026 · 10:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Mijas Las Lagunas win · 6–2
  6. FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Validated
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 35/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 00:57 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10082326

Closing Odds 1.87
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Mijas Las Lagunas win · Mijas Las Lagunas 6–2 Tamaraceite
Prediction ✔ Correct
Decision Grade A

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Mijas Las Lagunas vs Tamaraceite
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-27 10:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Mijas Las Lagunas 1.32 — Tamaraceite 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: None (actionable) — best tracked EV is about +0.8%, still below the +2.0% minimum for a headline / default stake (no default bet).
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

Prefer skipping to over-staking when the engine is honest about missing edge.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Validated — Pre-match lean validated against the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 3 1 0 10
2 Don Benito 4 3 1 0 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 2 1 0 7
4 Tenerife II 3 2 0 1 6
5 Recreativo Huelva 3 2 0 1 6
6 Badajoz 3 2 0 1 6
7 Sanluqueño 4 1 2 1 5
8 Marbella 3 1 1 1 4
9 Estepona 3 1 1 1 4
10 Linares Deportivo 4 1 1 2 4
11 Puente Genil 3 1 0 2 3
12 Atlético Central 3 1 0 2 3
13 Las Palmas II 3 1 0 2 3
14 Ciudad de Lucena 3 0 2 1 2
15 Antoniano 3 0 2 1 2
16 Xerez 3 0 2 1 2
17 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 0 2 1 2
18 Tamaraceite 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 6 0 +6 10
2 Don Benito 4 6 1 +5 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 6 2 +4 7
4 Tenerife II 3 6 4 +2 6
5 Marbella 3 6 6 0 4
6 Recreativo Huelva 3 5 4 +1 6
7 Puente Genil 3 5 4 +1 3
8 Sanluqueño 4 5 5 0 5
9 Linares Deportivo 4 5 7 -2 4
10 Badajoz 3 4 3 +1 6
11 Atlético Central 3 4 7 -3 3
12 Estepona 3 3 4 -1 4
13 Ciudad de Lucena 3 3 4 -1 2
14 Antoniano 3 2 3 -1 2
15 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 2 6 -4 2
16 Xerez 3 1 2 -1 2
17 Las Palmas II 3 1 4 -3 3
18 Tamaraceite 3 1 5 -4 0
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions