Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Don Benito vs Sanluqueño

Prediction Audit: Don Benito vs Sanluqueño Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Don Benito Don Benito
Sep 26, 2026 - 16:00
1 1.28
0 1.32
xG Accuracy: 64%
Sanluqueño Sanluqueño

The model missed the final outcome (Don Benito win 1–0).

The model had projected Sanluqueño at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Sanluqueño Don Benito ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The model rates Sanluqueño considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Sanluqueño +14.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Don Benito 34.2% 47.4% -13.1 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 31.1% -1.4 pp Aligned
Sanluqueño 36.1% 21.5% +14.6 pp Model Edge

The statistical model estimates Sanluqueño's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 21.5%, a difference of 14.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Don Benito win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Sanluqueño.

  • The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sanluqueño by 14.6 percentage points (21.5% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Don Benito 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Sanluqueño 36.1%
    • xG · Don Benito 1.28 — Sanluqueño 1.32
  2. Sep 26, 2026 · 15:32 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Don Benito 1.93 · Draw 2.94 · Sanluqueño 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Don Benito 47.4% · Draw 31.1% · Sanluqueño 21.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Don Benito 1.93 · Draw 2.94 · Sanluqueño 4.25
    • Implied 1X2 · Don Benito 47.4% · Draw 31.1% · Sanluqueño 21.5%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 26, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Don Benito win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 56/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (15 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 9/100
Monitoring Confidence 19/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 21, 2026 · 02:40 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-10114976

Closing Odds 4.25
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Don Benito win · Don Benito 1–0 Sanluqueño
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Don Benito vs Sanluqueño
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-26 16:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Away 36.1%
  • xG (showing): Don Benito 1.28 — Sanluqueño 1.32 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 45.2% · Probability edge: +9.3 pts · Est. EV: +11.7%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Totals and BTTS are evaluated against current market prices where available.

Correct score remains high-variance even when a line is most likely on paper.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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See Upcoming Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Matches Track Don Benito Next Match Prediction Track Sanluqueño Next Match Prediction View Today's Football Predictions

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 3 1 0 10
2 Don Benito 4 3 1 0 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 2 1 0 7
4 Tenerife II 3 2 0 1 6
5 Recreativo Huelva 3 2 0 1 6
6 Badajoz 3 2 0 1 6
7 Sanluqueño 4 1 2 1 5
8 Marbella 3 1 1 1 4
9 Estepona 3 1 1 1 4
10 Linares Deportivo 4 1 1 2 4
11 Puente Genil 3 1 0 2 3
12 Atlético Central 3 1 0 2 3
13 Las Palmas II 3 1 0 2 3
14 Ciudad de Lucena 3 0 2 1 2
15 Antoniano 3 0 2 1 2
16 Xerez 3 0 2 1 2
17 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 0 2 1 2
18 Tamaraceite 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 6 0 +6 10
2 Don Benito 4 6 1 +5 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 6 2 +4 7
4 Tenerife II 3 6 4 +2 6
5 Marbella 3 6 6 0 4
6 Recreativo Huelva 3 5 4 +1 6
7 Puente Genil 3 5 4 +1 3
8 Sanluqueño 4 5 5 0 5
9 Linares Deportivo 4 5 7 -2 4
10 Badajoz 3 4 3 +1 6
11 Atlético Central 3 4 7 -3 3
12 Estepona 3 3 4 -1 4
13 Ciudad de Lucena 3 3 4 -1 2
14 Antoniano 3 2 3 -1 2
15 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 2 6 -4 2
16 Xerez 3 1 2 -1 2
17 Las Palmas II 3 1 4 -3 3
18 Tamaraceite 3 1 5 -4 0
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions