Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Sevilla Atletico vs Sanluqueño

Prediction Audit: Sevilla Atletico vs Sanluqueño Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Sevilla Atletico Sevilla Atletico
Sep 20, 2026 - 09:30
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Sanluqueño Sanluqueño

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Sevilla Atletico at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Sevilla Atletico Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Sevilla Atletico higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Sevilla Atletico -12.6 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Sevilla Atletico 36.1% 48.8% -12.6 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 29.4% +0.3 pp Aligned
Sanluqueño 34.2% 21.9% +12.4 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Sevilla Atletico's win probability at 48.8%, compared with the model's estimate of 36.1%, a difference of 12.6 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Sevilla Atletico than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Sevilla Atletico; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Sevilla Atletico by 12.6 percentage points (48.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Sevilla Atletico 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Sanluqueño 34.2%
    • xG · Sevilla Atletico 1.32 — Sanluqueño 1.28
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Sevilla Atletico 1.88 · Draw 3.12 · Sanluqueño 4.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Sevilla Atletico 48.8% · Draw 29.4% · Sanluqueño 21.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 09:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Sevilla Atletico 1.88 · Draw 3.12 · Sanluqueño 4.19
    • Implied 1X2 · Sevilla Atletico 48.8% · Draw 29.4% · Sanluqueño 21.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 09:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 36/100
Betting Confidence 45/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 01:00 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8659665

Closing Odds 1.88
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Sevilla Atletico 2–2 Sanluqueño
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Sevilla Atletico vs Sanluqueño
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 09:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Sevilla Atletico 1.32 — Sanluqueño 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Best +EV line (same label as hero card when Primary thresholds are not met): BTTS Yes
  • Model: 54.5% · Implied: 46.2% · Probability edge: +8.3 pts · Est. EV: +9.0%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Where EV is shown, it is estimated return per unit stake at the best tracked decimal price — not the same thing as a raw probability gap.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 3 1 0 10
2 Don Benito 4 3 1 0 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 2 1 0 7
4 Tenerife II 3 2 0 1 6
5 Recreativo Huelva 3 2 0 1 6
6 Badajoz 3 2 0 1 6
7 Sanluqueño 4 1 2 1 5
8 Marbella 3 1 1 1 4
9 Estepona 3 1 1 1 4
10 Linares Deportivo 4 1 1 2 4
11 Puente Genil 3 1 0 2 3
12 Atlético Central 3 1 0 2 3
13 Las Palmas II 3 1 0 2 3
14 Ciudad de Lucena 3 0 2 1 2
15 Antoniano 3 0 2 1 2
16 Xerez 3 0 2 1 2
17 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 0 2 1 2
18 Tamaraceite 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 6 0 +6 10
2 Don Benito 4 6 1 +5 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 6 2 +4 7
4 Tenerife II 3 6 4 +2 6
5 Marbella 3 6 6 0 4
6 Recreativo Huelva 3 5 4 +1 6
7 Puente Genil 3 5 4 +1 3
8 Sanluqueño 4 5 5 0 5
9 Linares Deportivo 4 5 7 -2 4
10 Badajoz 3 4 3 +1 6
11 Atlético Central 3 4 7 -3 3
12 Estepona 3 3 4 -1 4
13 Ciudad de Lucena 3 3 4 -1 2
14 Antoniano 3 2 3 -1 2
15 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 2 6 -4 2
16 Xerez 3 1 2 -1 2
17 Las Palmas II 3 1 4 -3 3
18 Tamaraceite 3 1 5 -4 0
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions