Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Antoniano vs Mijas Las Lagunas

Prediction Audit: Antoniano vs Mijas Las Lagunas Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Antoniano Antoniano
Sep 20, 2026 - 17:00
1 1.36
1 1.24
xG Accuracy: 85%
Mijas Las Lagunas Mijas Las Lagunas

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).

The model had projected Antoniano at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Antoniano Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Antoniano higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Antoniano -15.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Antoniano 38.0% 53.9% -15.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 26.9% +2.7 pp Aligned
Mijas Las Lagunas 32.4% 19.2% +13.2 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Antoniano's win probability at 53.9%, compared with the model's estimate of 38.0%, a difference of 15.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Antoniano than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
  • 1X2: model leaned Antoniano; match finished Draw

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Antoniano by 15.9 percentage points (53.9% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 20, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Antoniano 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Mijas Las Lagunas 32.4%
    • xG · Antoniano 1.36 — Mijas Las Lagunas 1.24
  2. Sep 20, 2026 · 16:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Antoniano 1.70 · Draw 3.40 · Mijas Las Lagunas 4.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Antoniano 53.9% · Draw 26.9% · Mijas Las Lagunas 19.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 20, 2026 · 16:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Antoniano 1.70 · Draw 3.40 · Mijas Las Lagunas 4.77
    • Implied 1X2 · Antoniano 53.9% · Draw 26.9% · Mijas Las Lagunas 19.2%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 20, 2026 · 17:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 55/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (16 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Pricing remains divergent
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 20/100
Betting Confidence 44/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 14, 2026 · 02:34 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-8693244

Closing Odds 1.7
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Antoniano 1–1 Mijas Las Lagunas
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Quick read on how the model reads this matchup.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Antoniano vs Mijas Las Lagunas
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-20 17:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Away 32.4%
  • xG (showing): Antoniano 1.36 — Mijas Las Lagunas 1.24 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Over 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.4% · No 45.6%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 3 1 0 10
2 Don Benito 4 3 1 0 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 2 1 0 7
4 Tenerife II 3 2 0 1 6
5 Recreativo Huelva 3 2 0 1 6
6 Badajoz 3 2 0 1 6
7 Sanluqueño 4 1 2 1 5
8 Marbella 3 1 1 1 4
9 Estepona 3 1 1 1 4
10 Linares Deportivo 4 1 1 2 4
11 Puente Genil 3 1 0 2 3
12 Atlético Central 3 1 0 2 3
13 Las Palmas II 3 1 0 2 3
14 Ciudad de Lucena 3 0 2 1 2
15 Antoniano 3 0 2 1 2
16 Xerez 3 0 2 1 2
17 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 0 2 1 2
18 Tamaraceite 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 6 0 +6 10
2 Don Benito 4 6 1 +5 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 6 2 +4 7
4 Tenerife II 3 6 4 +2 6
5 Marbella 3 6 6 0 4
6 Recreativo Huelva 3 5 4 +1 6
7 Puente Genil 3 5 4 +1 3
8 Sanluqueño 4 5 5 0 5
9 Linares Deportivo 4 5 7 -2 4
10 Badajoz 3 4 3 +1 6
11 Atlético Central 3 4 7 -3 3
12 Estepona 3 3 4 -1 4
13 Ciudad de Lucena 3 3 4 -1 2
14 Antoniano 3 2 3 -1 2
15 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 2 6 -4 2
16 Xerez 3 1 2 -1 2
17 Las Palmas II 3 1 4 -3 3
18 Tamaraceite 3 1 5 -4 0
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions