Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 / Marbella vs Sanluqueño

Prediction Audit: Marbella vs Sanluqueño Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Marbella Marbella
Sep 06, 2026 - 16:30
2 1.32
2 1.28
xG Accuracy: 68%
Sanluqueño Sanluqueño

The model missed the final outcome (Draw 2–2).

The model had projected Marbella at 36.1%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade C

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (4 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
  • 1X2 Marbella Draw ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 2-2 ✖ Incorrect

Model vs Closing Market

Moderate Disagreement

The model rates Sanluqueño considerably stronger than the closing betting market.

Largest probability gap: Sanluqueño +8.4 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Marbella 36.1% 43.4% -7.3 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 30.8% -1.1 pp Aligned
Sanluqueño 34.2% 25.8% +8.4 pp Model Higher

The statistical model estimates Sanluqueño's win probability at 34.2%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 25.8%, a difference of 8.4 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Draw 2–2.

Market Assessment

The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Sanluqueño.

  • Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 4 goals materialised
  • Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
  • Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile

What failed

  • 1X2: model leaned Marbella; match finished Draw
  • Exact score: outside the model's top score bins

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Marbella by 8.4 percentage points (27.7% vs model 36.1%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Marbella 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Sanluqueño 34.2%
    • xG · Marbella 1.32 — Sanluqueño 1.28
  2. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:03 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Marbella 2.11 · Draw 2.98 · Sanluqueño 3.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Marbella 43.4% · Draw 30.8% · Sanluqueño 25.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:29 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Marbella 2.11 · Draw 2.98 · Sanluqueño 3.55
    • Implied 1X2 · Marbella 43.4% · Draw 30.8% · Sanluqueño 25.8%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 06, 2026 · 16:30 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Draw · 2–2
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Observe
Historical Decision No Primary Bet
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 75/100 · High
  • Validation: Pass
Evidence ★★★★★
  • Statistical edge detected
  • Direction agrees with model lean
  • Validation passed
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 57/100
Betting Confidence 78/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Aug 31, 2026 · 08:03 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-6369712

Closing Odds 3.55
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Draw · Marbella 2–2 Sanluqueño
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade C

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Below is a compact, numbers-first snapshot aligned with the same engine as the cards above.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 4
  • Fixture: Marbella vs Sanluqueño
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-06 16:30:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 36.1% · Draw 29.7% · Away 34.2%
  • xG (showing): Marbella 1.32 — Sanluqueño 1.28 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Primary / headline line (Betting Primary Pick when shown): Over 2.5 goals
  • Model: 48.2% · Implied: 42.5% · Probability edge: +5.6 pts · Est. EV: +8.5%
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

Use the cards for tiering; this text only restates the same inputs in narrative form.

1X2 can look balanced even when side markets show clearer structure.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: No Primary Bet

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 29, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 3 1 0 10
2 Don Benito 4 3 1 0 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 2 1 0 7
4 Tenerife II 3 2 0 1 6
5 Recreativo Huelva 3 2 0 1 6
6 Badajoz 3 2 0 1 6
7 Sanluqueño 4 1 2 1 5
8 Marbella 3 1 1 1 4
9 Estepona 3 1 1 1 4
10 Linares Deportivo 4 1 1 2 4
11 Puente Genil 3 1 0 2 3
12 Atlético Central 3 1 0 2 3
13 Las Palmas II 3 1 0 2 3
14 Ciudad de Lucena 3 0 2 1 2
15 Antoniano 3 0 2 1 2
16 Xerez 3 0 2 1 2
17 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 0 2 1 2
18 Tamaraceite 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Real Betis II 4 6 0 +6 10
2 Don Benito 4 6 1 +5 10
3 Sevilla Atletico 3 6 2 +4 7
4 Tenerife II 3 6 4 +2 6
5 Marbella 3 6 6 0 4
6 Recreativo Huelva 3 5 4 +1 6
7 Puente Genil 3 5 4 +1 3
8 Sanluqueño 4 5 5 0 5
9 Linares Deportivo 4 5 7 -2 4
10 Badajoz 3 4 3 +1 6
11 Atlético Central 3 4 7 -3 3
12 Estepona 3 3 4 -1 4
13 Ciudad de Lucena 3 3 4 -1 2
14 Antoniano 3 2 3 -1 2
15 Mijas Las Lagunas 3 2 6 -4 2
16 Xerez 3 1 2 -1 2
17 Las Palmas II 3 1 4 -3 3
18 Tamaraceite 3 1 5 -4 0
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 Predictions