AI correctly predicted the Yeclano win.
The match finished 1–0, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Yeclano Yeclano ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-0 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yeclano | 35.6% | 52.4% | -16.8 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 27.0% | +2.6 pp | Aligned |
| Elche II | 34.7% | 20.6% | +14.1 pp | Model Edge |
The closing market estimates Yeclano's win probability at 52.4%, compared with the model's estimate of 35.6%, a difference of 16.8 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Yeclano win 1–0).
Market Assessment
The market is materially more optimistic about Yeclano than the current fair estimate.
- Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
- Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (1 goals)
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Yeclano higher (52.4% vs model 35.6%, 16.8 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Yeclano win 1–0).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Yeclano 35.6% · Draw 29.7% · Elche II 34.7%
- xG · Yeclano 1.31 — Elche II 1.29
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:31 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Yeclano 1.70 · Draw 3.30 · Elche II 4.33
- Implied 1X2 · Yeclano 52.4% · Draw 27.0% · Elche II 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Yeclano 1.70 · Draw 3.30 · Elche II 4.33
- Implied 1X2 · Yeclano 52.4% · Draw 27.0% · Elche II 20.6%
- Bookmaker · Bet365
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 16:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Yeclano win · 1–0
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (17 pp)
- No strong statistical edge
- Pricing remains divergent
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | La Nucía | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Castellonense | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 4 | Orihuela | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Ucam Murcia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Intercity | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 7 | Deportiva Minera | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Mallorca II | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 9 | Cieza | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Elche II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Yeclano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Alcoyano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Lorca Deportiva | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 14 | Valencia II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | Peña Deportiva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 16 | Atlético Baleares | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | Poblense | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Real Murcia II | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón II | 4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 2 | La Nucía | 3 | 7 | 1 | +6 | 9 |
| 3 | Ucam Murcia | 3 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 6 |
| 4 | Orihuela | 4 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 7 |
| 5 | Castellonense | 3 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 6 | Intercity | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 | Deportiva Minera | 3 | 3 | 2 | +1 | 5 |
| 8 | Alcoyano | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 9 | Atlético Baleares | 3 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 1 |
| 10 | Mallorca II | 3 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 5 |
| 11 | Cieza | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 | Elche II | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Yeclano | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Valencia II | 3 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 1 |
| 15 | Real Murcia II | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 16 | Lorca Deportiva | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 2 |
| 17 | Peña Deportiva | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 1 |
| 18 | Poblense | 3 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 0 |
