Predictions / Football / Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 / Ucam Murcia vs Valencia II

Prediction Audit: Ucam Murcia vs Valencia II Prediction, Odds & AI Betting Tips

Ucam Murcia Ucam Murcia
Sep 13, 2026 - 09:00
1 1.27
0 1.33
xG Accuracy: 64%
Valencia II Valencia II

The model missed the final outcome (Ucam Murcia win 1–0).

The model had projected Valencia II at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.

Tracked markets vs full-time result

Prediction grade F

Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.

  • Market Prediction Result Outcome
  • Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (1 goals) ✔ Correct
  • Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
  • 1X2 Valencia II Ucam Murcia ✖ Incorrect
  • Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 1-0 ✔ Correct

Model vs Closing Market

Strong Disagreement

The closing market prices Ucam Murcia higher than the statistical model.

Largest probability gap: Ucam Murcia -12.9 pp

Outcome Model Closing Market Difference Signal
Ucam Murcia 33.8% 46.7% -12.9 pp Market Higher
Draw 29.6% 28.4% +1.2 pp Aligned
Valencia II 36.6% 24.9% +11.7 pp Model Edge

The closing market estimates Ucam Murcia's win probability at 46.7%, compared with the model's estimate of 33.8%, a difference of 12.9 percentage points. This highlights a disagreement between the model and market consensus, without indicating which view is ultimately correct.

Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.

After full time, the result was Ucam Murcia win 1–0.

Market Assessment

The market is materially more optimistic about Ucam Murcia than the current fair estimate.

  • Investors may be incorporating information not fully reflected in the baseline model.
  • Tournament-specific context can shift market pricing.

Post Match Insights

What worked

  • Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
  • Exact score 1–0 fell within the model's highlighted bins

What failed

  • Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
  • 1X2: model leaned Valencia II; match finished Ucam Murcia

Market lesson

The closing market differed from the model on Valencia II by 12.9 percentage points (49.5% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.

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Prediction Timeline

How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.

  1. Sep 13, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Forecast generated
    • Model 1X2 · Ucam Murcia 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Valencia II 36.6%
    • xG · Ucam Murcia 1.27 — Valencia II 1.33
  2. Sep 13, 2026 · 08:29 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
    • 1X2 odds · Ucam Murcia 1.96 · Draw 3.22 · Valencia II 3.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Ucam Murcia 46.7% · Draw 28.4% · Valencia II 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  3. Sep 13, 2026 · 08:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
    • 1X2 odds · Ucam Murcia 1.96 · Draw 3.22 · Valencia II 3.67
    • Implied 1X2 · Ucam Murcia 46.7% · Draw 28.4% · Valencia II 24.9%
    • Bookmaker · Pinnacle
  4. Sep 13, 2026 · 09:00 UTC Kickoff
  5. FT Full-time result Ucam Murcia win · 1–0
  6. FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
  7. Archived Prediction review

Historical Snapshot

Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.

Historical verdict: Monitor
Historical Decision Monitor
Outcome Missed
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
Prediction Reliability 57/100 · Moderate
  • Validation: Warning
  • Large market gap (13 pp)
Evidence ★★★★★
  • No strong statistical edge
  • Market has already priced much of the edge
  • Validation warning
Pricing proximity (inverse gap) 12/100
Monitoring Confidence 20/100

Validation Report

Immutable Snapshot

Prediction Time: Sep 07, 2026 · 00:55 UTC Snapshot ID: dp-7421294

Closing Odds 1.96
AI Fair Odds —
CLV Pending
Final Result Ucam Murcia win · Ucam Murcia 1–0 Valencia II
Prediction ✖ Missed
Decision Grade F

Model Performance

This prediction contributes to:

  • Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%

Review FAQ

How accurate was the prediction?
This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
What does xG Accuracy measure?
xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
Does this improve the AI record?
Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.

Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

AI match briefing

AI Match Summary

Pre-match snapshot for this fixture.

  • League: Segunda División RFEF - Group 3
  • Fixture: Ucam Murcia vs Valencia II
  • Kickoff: 2026-09-13 09:00:00
  • 1X2 (model): Home 33.8% · Draw 29.6% · Away 36.6%
  • xG (showing): Ucam Murcia 1.27 — Valencia II 1.33 (total xG ≈ 2.6)
  • Value headline: At least one tracked line reaches the headline EV threshold — align with the hero / Primary card if shown.
  • Structural leans (not bets): Structural lean (model): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5 (Under 2.5 51.8% · Over 2.5 48.2%); BTTS Yes (Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%) Value lean (pricing): O/U 2.5 Under 2.5; BTTS Yes
  • BTTS (model): Yes 54.5% · No 45.5%
  • Correct score (top bin): 1-1 (12.5%)

When book depth is thin or odds are missing, EV may be unavailable even though the model still prefers one side on totals or BTTS — wait for cleaner prices or skip.

If lines move materially, re-run generation or refresh — implied probabilities and any future EV readouts will change first.

Historical Recommendation

Historical Decision: Monitor

Outcome: Missed — Pre-match 1X2 lean did not match the full-time result.

Risk Factors Considered Before Kickoff

  • Price movement: implied probabilities and EV move with odds.
  • Sample / data gaps: low-information leagues widen forecast bands.
  • In-play state: goals and red cards are not modelled here.
  • Scoreline variance: the most likely scoreline is still usually a low absolute probability outcome (often well below 20%).

Last Updated

September 30, 2026 (UTC)

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Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 — Standings
# TEAM MP W D L PTS
1 Castellón II 4 3 0 1 9
2 La Nucía 3 3 0 0 9
3 Castellonense 3 3 0 0 9
4 Orihuela 4 2 1 1 7
5 Ucam Murcia 3 2 0 1 6
6 Intercity 3 1 2 0 5
7 Deportiva Minera 3 1 2 0 5
8 Mallorca II 3 1 2 0 5
9 Cieza 3 1 1 1 4
10 Elche II 3 1 1 1 4
11 Yeclano 3 1 1 1 4
12 Alcoyano 3 1 1 1 4
13 Lorca Deportiva 3 0 2 1 2
14 Valencia II 3 0 1 2 1
15 Peña Deportiva 3 0 1 2 1
16 Atlético Baleares 3 0 1 2 1
17 Poblense 3 0 0 3 0
18 Real Murcia II 3 0 0 3 0
# TEAM MP GS GC +/- PTS
1 Castellón II 4 10 4 +6 9
2 La Nucía 3 7 1 +6 9
3 Ucam Murcia 3 6 3 +3 6
4 Orihuela 4 6 7 -1 7
5 Castellonense 3 5 2 +3 9
6 Intercity 3 4 3 +1 5
7 Deportiva Minera 3 3 2 +1 5
8 Alcoyano 3 3 4 -1 4
9 Atlético Baleares 3 3 7 -4 1
10 Mallorca II 3 2 1 +1 5
11 Cieza 3 2 2 0 4
12 Elche II 3 2 2 0 4
13 Yeclano 3 2 2 0 4
14 Valencia II 3 2 4 -2 1
15 Real Murcia II 3 2 8 -6 0
16 Lorca Deportiva 3 1 2 -1 2
17 Peña Deportiva 3 1 3 -2 1
18 Poblense 3 1 5 -4 0
Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Spain. Segunda División RFEF - Group 3 Predictions