The model missed the final outcome (Olot win 1–2).
The model had projected Náxara at 36.6%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Over 2.5 (3 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Náxara Olot ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-2 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Náxara | 36.6% | 28.7% | +7.9 pp | Model Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 32.0% | -2.4 pp | Aligned |
| Olot | 33.8% | 39.3% | -5.5 pp | Market Higher |
The statistical model estimates Náxara's win probability at 36.6%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 28.7%, a difference of 7.9 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the result was Olot win 1–2.
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Náxara.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Expected goals projected a high-scoring match (ΣxG 2.60) — 3 goals materialised
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Over 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- 1X2: model leaned Náxara; match finished Olot
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Náxara by 7.9 percentage points (28.7% vs model 36.6%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Náxara 36.6% · Draw 29.6% · Olot 33.8%
- xG · Náxara 1.33 — Olot 1.27
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Náxara 3.19 · Draw 2.86 · Olot 2.33
- Implied 1X2 · Náxara 28.7% · Draw 32.0% · Olot 39.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Náxara 3.19 · Draw 2.86 · Olot 2.33
- Implied 1X2 · Náxara 28.7% · Draw 32.0% · Olot 39.3%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 13, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Olot win · 1–2
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- No strong statistical edge
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División RFEF - Group 2 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Osasuna II | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
| 3 | Ebro | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 4 | Terrassa | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 5 | Espanyol II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Manresa | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 7 | Utebo | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | UD Logroñés II | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Girona II | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Olot | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Barbastro | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 14 | Reddis | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Calamocha | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | SD Logroñés | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Arnedo | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 18 | Náxara | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona B | 4 | 10 | 0 | +10 | 10 |
| 2 | Espanyol II | 3 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 6 |
| 3 | Girona II | 3 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 4 |
| 4 | Manresa | 4 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 | Osasuna II | 3 | 6 | 1 | +5 | 9 |
| 6 | Ebro | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 7 |
| 7 | Olot | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Utebo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 5 |
| 9 | Barbastro | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | SD Logroñés | 3 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 2 |
| 11 | UD Logroñés II | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 12 | Tudelano | 3 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 13 | Peña Sport | 4 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 4 |
| 14 | Calamocha | 3 | 3 | 8 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Terrassa | 4 | 2 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 16 | Arnedo | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 |
| 17 | Reddis | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 | Náxara | 3 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 0 |
