The model missed the final outcome (Draw 1–1).
The model had projected Coruxo at 38.0%, but the full-time result went the other way.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✖ Incorrect
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes Yes ✔ Correct
- 1X2 Coruxo Draw ✖ Incorrect
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 1-0, 0-1, 2-1, 1-2 1-1 ✔ Correct
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coruxo | 38.0% | 46.5% | -8.5 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 31.1% | -1.6 pp | Aligned |
| Gernika | 32.4% | 22.4% | +10.0 pp | Model Edge |
The statistical model estimates Gernika's win probability at 32.4%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 22.4%, a difference of 10.0 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE1.
After full time, the result was Draw 1–1.
Market Assessment
The statistical fair estimate is materially higher than the market on Gernika.
- The model may see a slower-scoring or closer matchup than the market.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Both Teams To Score (Yes) matched the full-time result
- Exact score 1–1 fell within the model's highlighted bins
What failed
- Over / Under 2.5: model leaned Over 2.5; match finished Under 2.5 (2 goals)
- 1X2: model leaned Coruxo; match finished Draw
Market lesson
The closing market differed from the model on Coruxo by 10.0 percentage points (28.0% vs model 38.0%) — in this case the market view proved closer.
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Coruxo 38.0% · Draw 29.6% · Gernika 32.4%
- xG · Coruxo 1.36 — Gernika 1.24
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:30 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Coruxo 1.91 · Draw 2.85 · Gernika 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Coruxo 46.5% · Draw 31.1% · Gernika 22.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 14:59 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE1
- 1X2 odds · Coruxo 1.91 · Draw 2.85 · Gernika 3.97
- Implied 1X2 · Coruxo 46.5% · Draw 31.1% · Gernika 22.4%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 27, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Draw · 1–1
-
FT Prediction missed 1X2 lean did not match full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Warning
- Large market gap (10 pp)
- Statistical edge detected
- Market has already priced much of the edge
- Validation warning
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Explore More Predictions Content
Get Premium Predictions for Coruxo & Gernika!
Unlock in-depth analysis, exclusive betting tips, and match forecasts with our premium subscription service.
Subscribe Now
Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Ourense CF | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Gernika | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bergantiños | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Coruxo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Basconia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Compostela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Arosa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Llanera | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gernika | 3 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 7 |
| 2 | Bergantiños | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Basconia | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Eibar II | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Coruxo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Arosa | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | Portugalete | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo II | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Compostela | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Llanera | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
