AI correctly predicted the Coruxo win.
The match finished 0–2, validating the model's directional assessment.
Tracked markets vs full-time result
Each row compares the pre-match model lean to the full-time result.
- Market Prediction Result Outcome
- Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5 Under 2.5 (2 goals) ✔ Correct
- Both Teams To Score BTTS Yes No ✖ Incorrect
- 1X2 Coruxo Coruxo ✔ Correct
- Correct Score Insights 1-1, 0-1, 1-0, 1-2, 2-1 0-2 ✖ Incorrect
Model vs Closing Market
| Outcome | Model | Closing Market | Difference | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Alavés II | 34.2% | 43.4% | -9.1 pp | Market Higher |
| Draw | 29.6% | 30.1% | -0.5 pp | Aligned |
| Coruxo | 36.1% | 26.5% | +9.6 pp | Model Higher |
The statistical model estimates Coruxo's win probability at 36.1%, compared with the closing market's implied probability of 26.5%, a difference of 9.6 percentage points. This highlights a substantial disagreement between the model's assessment and the market consensus, rather than indicating which view is ultimately correct.
Model probabilities are generated from the statistical xG model using a Poisson distribution. Closing market probabilities are derived from consensus closing 1X2 odds after margin removal. Values represent implied probabilities rather than betting recommendations. Closing snapshot: PRE5.
After full time, the model's directional lean matched the result (Coruxo win 0–2).
Market Assessment
The fair estimate shows a modest edge over current market pricing on Coruxo.
- Monitor line movement before kickoff — not a betting recommendation.
Post Match Insights
What worked
- Under 2.5 goals aligned with the xG profile
What failed
- Both Teams To Score: model leaned BTTS Yes; match finished BTTS No
- Exact score: outside the model's top score bins
Market lesson
Large model–market gaps do not automatically mean the market is right. Here the closing market priced Coruxo more conservatively (26.5% vs model 36.1%, 9.6 pp), but the model's lean was validated (Coruxo win 0–2).
Prediction Timeline
How this prediction moved from forecast to full-time review.
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Forecast generated
- Model 1X2 · Deportivo Alavés II 34.2% · Draw 29.7% · Coruxo 36.1%
- xG · Deportivo Alavés II 1.28 — Coruxo 1.32
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:33 UTC Opening odds snapshot PRE30
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Alavés II 2.11 · Draw 3.04 · Coruxo 3.45
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Alavés II 43.4% · Draw 30.1% · Coruxo 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 14:57 UTC Closing snapshot recorded PRE5
- 1X2 odds · Deportivo Alavés II 2.11 · Draw 3.04 · Coruxo 3.45
- Implied 1X2 · Deportivo Alavés II 43.4% · Draw 30.1% · Coruxo 26.5%
- Bookmaker · Pinnacle
-
Sep 05, 2026 · 15:00 UTC Kickoff
-
FT Full-time result Coruxo win · 0–2
-
FT Prediction validated Directional lean matched full-time result
-
Archived Prediction review
Historical Snapshot
Frozen at kickoff — the model output as it stood before the match started.
Pre-match metrics (historical context)
- Validation: Pass
- Statistical edge detected
- Direction agrees with model lean
- Validation passed
Validation Report
Immutable SnapshotModel Performance
This prediction contributes to:
- Primary Bets ROI (180d): -100.0%
Review FAQ
- How accurate was the prediction?
- This page grades directional markets (1X2, Over/Under 2.5, BTTS) against the full-time result. The prediction grade reflects how many of those tracked markets matched reality.
- What does xG Accuracy measure?
- xG Accuracy compares the model's pre-match expected-goals profile to the actual scoreline — not whether every market hit. A strong directional review can coexist with a moderate xG accuracy score.
- Why wasn't the exact score predicted?
- Correct-score outcomes are low-probability tails even when the model reads the match profile well. We highlight top score bins for context; missing the exact line does not invalidate a directional review.
- Does this improve the AI record?
- Each finished match is logged in our validation pipeline. Aggregated hit rates and CLV studies are published separately — this page is the per-match audit trail.
Predictions are for informational purposes only. Always gamble responsibly and within your limits. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 — Standings
| # | TEAM | MP | W | D | L | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sestao River | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 2 | Ourense CF | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 9 |
| 3 | Gernika | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Bergantiños | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 5 | Portugalete | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 6 | Eibar II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 8 | Coruxo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Basconia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 11 | Compostela | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo II | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 16 | Arosa | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 17 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 18 | Llanera | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| # | TEAM | MP | GS | GC | +/- | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gernika | 3 | 10 | 2 | +8 | 7 |
| 2 | Bergantiños | 3 | 6 | 2 | +4 | 7 |
| 3 | Basconia | 3 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 4 |
| 4 | Sestao River | 4 | 5 | 2 | +3 | 9 |
| 5 | Ourense CF | 4 | 5 | 3 | +2 | 9 |
| 6 | Deportivo Alavés II | 3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 6 |
| 7 | Atlético Astorga | 4 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3 |
| 8 | Eibar II | 3 | 4 | 2 | +2 | 6 |
| 9 | Coruxo | 3 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 4 |
| 10 | Amorebieta | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 | Arosa | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
| 12 | Portugalete | 3 | 3 | 1 | +2 | 7 |
| 13 | Marino de Luanco | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 3 |
| 14 | Real Oviedo II | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 | Compostela | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Llanera | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 |
| 18 | Racing Santander II | 3 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 1 |
